The Last Laugh
February 16, 2011 Predicting the future is always difficult. Sometimes, speculation on what is to come elicits a chuckle of humor. Other times, a subtle “wow” might be the response. Given what’s coming in biotech seed, I am tempted to laugh, but more in fascination than jest.
Recently, I had the opportunity to sit in on a conference call by Monsanto discussing what the company had in its biotech seed trait pipeline. Much of this information was expected, having been reported by various ag journalists for several years now. This included new varieties of wheat that are stress and herbicide tolerant, dicamba-tolerant soybeans and canola (giving grower-customers more herbicide control options for tough-to-kill weeds) and some new Roundup corn options that promise to replace detasseling while increasing yields.
Despite the gene technology breakthroughs these products represent, however, it was the final biotech seed trait mentioned that really raised my curiosity. Now advancing to Phase 2 testing, Monsanto, in collaboration with BASF, is experimenting with what it calls Nitrogen Utilization Corn. As the name implies, corn grown from this seed can more effectively target how the growing plant uses nitrogen, allowing it to boost yields under normal nitrogen conditions or stabilize yields in low nitrogen environments.
Hearing this, I chuckled. A few decades ago, the thought of corn seed having its own nitrogen utilization built in would have probably garnered a full-blown laugh. Now, it’s likely a chuckle of “holy cow!”
In many ways, this reminded me of an episode from my childhood. I remember one Saturday night back in the 1970s watching The Carol Burnett Show with my parents and grandparents. During one of the skits, there were two men on a plane comparing their watches. While both watches were slick to look at, one of them had many seemingly impossible features installed. “Now here are some baseball scores,” said the character, and proceeded to rattle off up-to-the-minute scores being broadcast on his watch.
I remember everyone in the room laughing at this. Real-time data transmitted to a handheld device? Very funny in the 1970s. Of course, today, your average Smartphone performs this and dozens of other functions — and no one would laugh at this fact anymore.
Based upon its own timetable, it will probably be the 2020s before Nitrogen Utilization Corn hits the general agricultural marketplace. And I don’t expect it to cause fertilizer usage among grower-customers to plummet as a result. After all, several market observers in the mid-1990s predicted crop protection product traits in seed would completely replace the real thing within a decade. Now, almost 20 years later, crop protection product sales are not growing as quickly as they used to, but they are still growing.
Still, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next 10 years or so in the ag retail market. And who ends up with the last laugh.
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