2026 Spring Fertility: Leading Ag Retailers Assess Opportunities and Challenges

As winter subsides, the ag community turns its attention to the next growing season. This means prepping fields for planting by applying crop nutrition products to aid plant growth.

However, given all uncertainty that dominated much of the industry during the 2025 growing season, can we expect 2026 to be any different? To find out, CropLife® Magazine talked with a handful of CropLife 100 ag retailers to gauge how the spring fertilizer application sector might perform this year.

In summation, the views are mixed. Some, such as Parker Gilbert, Vice President, Wholesale Crop Nutrition at GreenPoint Ag, Decatur, IL, thinks the 2026 spring fertilizer application season will be just fine — providing some of the key 2025 market variables remain intact.

“The outlook for spring 2026 is slightly positive from where we are today, if the corn acres from 2025 hold flat,” says Gilbert. “If we see more rice/corn acres switch to soybeans in 2026, then it will switch to slightly negative.  With the last-minute switching available in the Southeast, it probably won’t be until right before ‘game time’ until we have a clearer picture.”

But others, such as George Secor, President and CEO at Sunrise Cooperative, Fremont, OH, aren’t as certain spring 2026 will be a good time for fertilizer demand.

“Here, we are a bit cautious,” says Secor. “Fall application was not the best. Tough yields have left many growers underwater and they were not profitable in 2025. We are dealing with very tight economics that will result in lots of scrutiny being put on fertilizer application.”

As tends to be the case, when agriculture is coming into a new growing season from an uneven one as 2025 turned out to be, many grower-customers will look to use the amount of crop nutrition already present in their soils versus adding new fertilizers to the mix.

“Shrinking farm profitability and tighter margins are going to be the biggest challenge to growth,” says Chris Behrens, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing at Heartland Co-op, Clive, IA. “We try to equate better fertility programs to greater bushels, but some growers are looking to work off the banked fertility.”

Phosphate Concerns

While opinions varied on 2026 spring fertilizer application, the ag retailers had nearly total agreement when it came to which of the three macronutrients — nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash — would be the most challenged this year.

“A major concern heading into the 2026 fertilizer year is that many farmers are cutting back on phosphate applications,” says Behrens. “With the high prices and lower breakeven, this is the main area we are seeing deductions. We already saw a 9% reduction in phosphate application rates this fall.”

GreenPoint Ag’s Gilbert agrees. “Phosphates are trending lower and will most likely perform worst in 2026,” he says. “The system in this country is still working through small levels of carryover from last spring, and the softening of that market globally is weighing things down.”

To appreciate how phosphorus fertilizer prices have climbed, consider some historical perspective. In January 2025, one ton of diammonium phosphate (DAP) cost approximately $500. By the middle of 2025, this price had risen to more than $800 per ton. Today, a ton of DAP still costs between $650 to $850 per ton, according to industry sources.

Another fertilizer to keep an eye on when it comes to market challenges is urea ammonium nitrate (UAN).

“[Some suppliers are] just out there begging retailers to buy UAN right now, but they cannot find buyers anywhere,” says Sunrise’s Secor. “At the same time here in the East, we just cannot forget how tight UAN really got as we wrapped up sidedress applications last spring.”

Regarding the other two macronutrients, the consensus among ag retailers that talked with CropLife is that the demand for them in spring 2026 would be just fine.

“Potash and nitrogen should do okay,” says Secor. “Potash is actually affordable, and nitrogen, as we all know, is mandatory.”

Heartland’s Behrens concurs with this assessment, particularly when it comes to nitrogen. He bases this belief on what’s already taken place for nitrogen-based fertilizers thus far.

“Nitrogen will do the best in 2026,” he says. “We have already seen a near record anhydrous ammonia season this past fall.”

Buying Ahead?

Besides the challenges and opportunities ag retailers foresee for the major macronutrients this spring, many ag retailers are actively looking for ways to encourage their grower-customers to apply more fertilizer. According to Behrens, this has involved being more “forward-thinking” at Heartland and offering better terms for buyers.

“We made early commitments to suppliers and looked at getting the product to the ground quicker than in previous years,” he says. “Also, offering an attractive financing option has made a real difference for us in getting early commitments from the growers.”

According to GreenPoint Ag’s Gilbert, his company is dealing with a “wait-and-see” mindset from its grower-customers so far.

“The biggest challenge for growth will be the just-in-time nature of purchasing heading into early spring,” he says. “This is nothing new to our industry, but usually, there are a few regions in the country behind the eight-ball. This year, it feels like the entire market is holding out longer than normal on winter-fill planning. This lack of planning and positioning from the entire fertilizer supply chain will make things difficult for a company to grow. It will take all the capacity of the system just to supply historical needs.”

Sunrise’s Secor agrees this customer hesitancy is — and could be — a serious problem for ag retailers as the application season goes on.

“As retailers try to slow-roll making their commitments on inventory, they must still keep in mind that many [storage] tanks really have not been fully restocked yet,” he says. “So, dragging our feet will end up catching up at some point. Finally, with very little to no market appreciation happening so far on any product and, quite frankly, some devaluation showing, retailers really need to consider just where their margin is going to come from this year.”

According to Secor, this supply issue could be made worse or better depending upon what happens on the world stage. At the moment, geopolitical concerns could affect how well or poorly spring 2026 ultimately performs.

“Geopolitics is a problem, both here at home as well as overseas,” he says. “This sure feels like it could be both positive and negative.”

GreenPoint Ag’s Gilbert also believes the global situation between major macronutrient suppliers could present problems for ag retailers and their grower-customers throughout 2026.

“The 800-pound gorilla that hasn’t been addressed is if tariffs are put on Russian nitrogen and potash fertilizers to force a peace treaty with Ukraine,” he says. “If that was to happen, you would see lower supplies of urea, UAN, and potash coming into the U.S.”