The Perils of Planting Projections
April 9, 2024 It’s sometimes funny how quickly perceptions of what the agricultural market will do can change. For example, take the recently released 2024 plantings projections report.
When this report was released at the end of March, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service predicted that, based upon its survey data of 72,000 farm operators, U.S. growers in 2024 would move more acres away from corn and wheat and towards cotton and soybeans. According to the report, U.S. growers plan to plant 90 million acres of corn this year, a 5% decrease from the 2023 total. Likewise, all wheat acreage will be down 4% vs. 2023, to 47.5 million acres.
On the opposite end of the scale, cotton acres are expected to grow 4% compared with 2023, up to 10.9 million acres. And soybean acreage will hit 86.5 million acres – an increase of 3% compared to the 2023 totals.
Loading ...What makes this interesting is that these numbers have changed somewhat since CropLife conducted its annual CropLife 100 survey of the nation’s top ag retailers late last year. In that survey, most respondents expected the 2024 acreage totals to virtually mirror those of 2023. For corn acreage, 45% of 2023 CropLife 100 respondents expected this number to be the same as in 2023 – approximately 94 million acres. Furthermore, 33% of respondents thought corn acreage in 2024 would increase slightly (between 1% and 5%). Only 12% predicted a decline in corn acreage for the 2024 growing season.
Meanwhile, soybean acreage was predicted by respondents to remain static from 2023 – approximately 83 million acres. Here, 49% of respondents said the acreage totals for soybeans would be flat for the 2024 growing season, with 41% forecasting an increase and 10% foreseeing a decline.
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