Signs Your Seed Business Is Poised for Future Growth
February 15, 2023 
In 2023, CropLife® Magazine is celebrating the 40th anniversary of its CropLife 100. This annual report not only ranks the top ag retail organizations in the country, but takes a deep dive into the entire world of ag retail.
Each year, there are always those crop input/services categories that drive (or on rare occasions, hurt) growth. Looking back at 2022, the fortunes for most of these were up, with crop protection products and custom application experiencing good growth and fertilizer seeing phenomenal growth.
Yet, one category failed to keep pace with the rest: Seed. According to the data, overall seed category sales during 2022 came in just shy of the $5 billion mark — virtually identical to the sales figure the category recorded during the 2021 growing season. Given that the rest of the industry saw much better growth, the seed category saw its overall market share of all crop inputs/services sales fall to 11%. Historically speaking, this market share for seed is on par with the percentage the category held more than a decade ago.
Looking back at history, it certainly seemed like the seed category was destined for much more market growth. When I first started working on the CropLife 100 back in 2000, biotech seeds were rapidly expanding into the agricultural market, with many seed producers getting involved in this area. This promised to spur industry growth for years to come.
Then, however, the Starlink incident occurred. Once a variety of biotech corn only approved for animal feed was found in human food, anti-biotech seed groups had the ammunition they needed to convince consumers “Big Ag” was not to be trusted and that foods made using biotech crops were “dangerous.” Effectively, this stalled the growth of the seed category within the ag retail market for many years to come. (And some would argue that the aftereffects of Starlink and all this negativity are still being felt today.)
As the ag retail industry moves into 2023, there are signs that the seed category is once again poised for some future growth. For many years now, many parts of the Western U.S. have been experiencing prolonged drought conditions. Irrigation has helped, of course, but many seed producers are actively developing varieties of drought-tolerant seeds. These have the potential to keep many crop fields actively producing cash crops in the years ahead instead of laying fallow as water becomes even more rationed by local and state agencies.
Then, of course, there’s the whole issue of herbicide-resistant weeds. With more than 250 types worldwide showing resistance to one or more active ingredients, the need for seeds that can withstand multiple crop protection product applications is growing by the day. Thankfully, many seed producers have stepped up with stacked trait seeds that can handle myriad crop protection products and still thrive.
Given these factors, and perhaps a half dozen more, the future for growth in the seed category among ag retailers looks positive going forward.
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