Normal Norms in Agriculture: No, New, and Near
December 28, 2022 As 2022 draws to a close, there are several buzzwords those of us who follow the agricultural marketplace have likely heard over and over again. These include supply, disruption, inflation, and logistics, to name a few.
However, if there is one word that has dominated most of the headlines throughout 2022 — and promises to continue well into 2023, if market observers are correct — it’s “normal.”
Going back to early days of the COVID pandemic at the beginning of 2020, much of the world experienced severely abnormal conditions. Countries closed down, office workers were sent to conduct their business in their homes, and face mask wearing became “a thing” whenever anyone ventured out into the public space.
Today, almost three years later, there are still many folks within our industry (across the entire world) that would say that there is still “no normal” compared with the way things were pre-COVID. In many cases, countries (such as China) have continued to periodically close up as new COVID outbreaks occur. Home officing has in many cases replaced central office spaces (with many companies downsizing their corporate headquarters accordingly). And face masks are still required at many hospitals and doctor’s offices around the country.
Perhaps a more commonplace usage of the word normal these past few years has tied it back to another word — new. Since the end of 2021, many industry speakers and returning in-person conferences have had the words “new normal” in their speeches/descriptions.
And this feeling of a “new normal” has been echoed by many participants in the recent CropLife 100 survey of the nation’s top ag retailers. “Disruption is the new normal and nothing is predictable,” wrote Don Harberts, Vice President of Agronomy for Cooperative Farmers Elevator, Rock Valley, IA, on the company’s 2022 CropLife 100 form. “[There is] very high risk and no backstop. Prices could drop in a heartbeat, and we are left holding the bag.”
Then, of course, there are those individuals that are holding out hope that pre-COVID normal will return. These are the “near normal” believers. This group sees progress in the world largely reopening without face mask restrictions and the return of in-person (vs. virtual) events and travel.
And, since this is an opinion, you might be asking what do I think? Not to deflect my view too much, but I find myself agreeing with something Dr. Michael Swanson, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo Bank NA said at the 2021 Mid America CropLife Association meeting, as the agricultural industry was one-year into the debate on what was/will be normal going forward.
“There is no normal,” said Swanson. “There’s only what we have temporarily.”
Whatever the case may be regarding the “normal” state of the world in 2023, I’m fairly certain of one, undeniable fact: The nation’s ag retailers and their grower-customers will adapt and thrive, no matter what normal ends up being. And for this reason, I am able to wish everyone out in the marketplace a very happy new year!
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