Agricultural Insights: No 20/20 in 2020
July 15, 2020 In what seems like a million years ago now, I remember back in December 2019 receiving many emails talking about the then-upcoming January 2020 industry events. As you might expect, many of these featured stylized 2020 logos using glasses to represent the zeros, referencing the year’s similarity to a common term for “good vision.”
From where the world now sits in 2020, I find implying that this year would bring some kind of clarity to agriculture (and the world in general) rather ironic. Indeed, as years go, 2020 has been filled with a host of cloudiness, uncertainty, and market dynamics that have changed week to week (or even day to day).
Of course, the 800-pound gorilla in the room for 2020 has been the COVID-19 pandemic. This has upended virtually all of the industry events scheduled to take place in-person since at least the middle of March. At last count, more than 80% of trade shows have been cancelled or postponed since then. And more are apparently joining the list, with some events currently scheduled for January 2021 now going virtual.
For agriculture, however, COVID-19 itself hasn’t been as big a deal, comparatively speaking. But the one direct impact of the pandemic involves the trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Throughout 2019, this dominated the ag market. And in January, it seemed as if things between the two trade partners would get back to some sense of normalcy. A Phase One deal was agreed to, with China promising to buy more U.S. agricultural goods.
Then the coronavirus pandemic hit in force. The two countries started blaming each other for misleading the other regarding the virus, and relations quickly soured once again. Right now, it’s anyone’s guess if a Phase Two plan will appear before the end of 2020.
In addition, crop protection product issues have also dominated agriculture. In early June, a court ruled that EPA’s re-registration of dicamba in October 2018 was invalid, effectively vacating the product label. Subsequent decisions have allowed dicamba to be applied through the end of July, but it remains to be seen if the expected re-registration this fall will happen without additional issues.
Finally, it looked as if a $11 billion settlement agreement for Bayer regarding glyphosate would eliminate the estimated 100,000 lawsuits filed against the herbicide in U.S. courts that has been hanging over the industry. However, a judge has now objected to the future claims portion of this agreement, with a hearing set on July 24 “for further discussion.”
Loading ...So, overall, the “vision” 2020 promised to provide to us all at the start of the year has been clear as mud.
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