State of the Seed Market: How Science Is Reshaping Seeds — and the Future of Farming

What do crystal balls, the Magic 8 Ball, a Ouija Board, and seeds have in common They’re all used to predict the future.

There are no negative repercussions if the first three give the wrong answer. When deciding which seeds to plant and what treatments to include, getting the wrong answer has enormous impact.

“The seed market showed positive growth in 2024 and attribute a lot of that due to our focus leveraging our genetic and trait diversity within our seed brands, which resonated well with growers,” says Eric West, Manager, Product Advancement/Research, GROWMARK. “Growers are evaluating all potential management options that are currently on the market to make sure they continue to max out their profitability and ensure their operations remain successful. We are also seeing tremendous progress in seed treatment sales across our entire geography as growers are looking more than ever to protect their seed investments.”

Protecting the segment is key, especially during challenging times.

“It’s easy to get down when most of the industry is in the midst of difficult years, but this is also the time when seed industry leaders like Syngenta Seeds can do what we do best — use our tools, technology, knowledge and investment to help farmers meet these challenges head-on,” says Eric Boeck, President, Syngenta Seeds North America. “We want to continue having a positive impact in corn and soybean fields across the country, providing farmers with the support they need to be successful.

In general, seed providers reported last year was filled with positive news.

“2024 was another good year for the ag industry and seed market,” says Todd Pester, Senior Manager, North American Seeds Product Management at Nutrien Ag Solutions. “During challenging economic conditions, it’s essential to weigh the cost versus the benefit of agricultural practices. Investing in top performing seed products can significantly enhance nutrient use efficiency and overall crop health, translating to lower input costs per bushel.”

AgbioInvestor, a consultancy and analytical firm, tracks the agchem market around the world and agrees with that assessment.

“AgbioInvestor expects that the value of the North American seed market to have increased by around 1.2% in 2024 to reach $17.472 billion at the ex-manufacturer level,” says Allister Phillips, Founding Partner. “I consider this good performance when compared to the headwinds that the chemical crop protection market has been facing, specifically product inventory issues and a move towards just-in-time purchasing.

“The most valuable seed sector in the U.S. is corn, and despite the U.S. corn area falling by 3.3%, the value of the corn market is expected to have increased principally through higher seed price,” Phillips continues. “In addition, a 1% rise in genetic modification (GM) adoption rates are likely to have aided market value development as area has transitioned away from lower cost conventional seeds to higher priced GM seed. The USDA estimates that in 2024 94% of the U.S. corn area was planted with genetically modified seed.”

Helena Agri-Enterprises LLC saw growth in sll its markets.

“We saw consistent, year-over-year growth in the seed market,” says Josh Byford, Director of Seed. “This happened organically across all regions, and it was driven by a continued emphasis on the growth of our seed business and by setting healthy goals.”

Whether they’re genetically modified or traditional expectations are clear.

“Seed is where it all starts with high yield strategies and BRANDT continues to serve our customers with an agronomy first mentality,” says Kyle McClelland, Seed & Technical Agronomy Manager. “We do vast amounts of on-farm research to ensure our seed recommendations are correct. The stakes are high for our customers, they need maximum performance from seeds 100% of the time.”

Despite the growth, Corteva-owned Brevant Seeds expects a trio of challenges endangering corn and soybeans.

Tyler Stastny, Retail Sales Agronomist for Brevant Seeds in Nebraska, says “tar spot, Goss’s wilt, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN) are three of the top threats from 2024 that are driving growers’ decisions for the upcoming season.”

2025 and Beyond

“We expect the market to be volatile; it is a buyers’ market for seeds,” BRANDT’s McClelland says. “Farmers chave lots of good options for corn and soybean seed with many points of sale to choose from.”

AgbioInvestor expects growers will face challenges outside of their control.

“2025 is likely to be a difficult year for seed companies as seed prices fall, driven by falling commodity trading prices,” says Phillips. “One positive will be the likely swing back into corn, away from soybean, with the USDA forecasting a 1.4% rise in planted area to 92 million acres, resulting in potential U.S. seed market growth.”
Technology will continue to grow the segment says Syngenta’s Boeck.

“We’re looking forward to the 2025 and 2026 seasons because of the innovations in our corn and soybean lineup,” he says. “From standout seed lines, like our Wild North hybrids adapted to provide unmatched performance in challenging northern Corn Belt environments, to our upcoming introduction of a new molecular trait stack for corn rootworm control that will be matched with our leading genetics, pending EPA registration, there are many reasons for optimism.”

Nutrien’s Pester focuses on the positives for the seed market.

“We are optimistic that global demand for corn and soybean will remain strong and give growers the confidence to continue investing in seed products and management practices that will maximize their yield potential and profit margins,” he says.

AgbioInvestor’s Phillips expects growers will move away from soybean.

“U.S. plantings of soybean are likely to decline in 2025, driven by not only by high U.S. carryover stocks, but strong global stocks,” Phillips says. “At present it is estimated that the world has the highest stock to use ratio of soybeans ever.”

There are a number of factors, including commodity prices that will affect how growers manage how growers choose their seed.

“Looking ahead to 2025, all commodity prices are down quite a bit from where we were at this time a year ago, so that’s something to watch,” says Bryan Perry, Head of U.S. Seeds and Traits, BASF Agricultural Solutions. “Looking at canola, we’ll try to sustain that growth next year as we’re estimating that market to probably come back to where it was in prior years. Soybeans look to be fairly strong, because growers are looking at ‘how do I reduce inputs?’ and soybeans are a little lower input crop than corn. Cotton is going to be tough — we are estimating that the cotton market will be down a bit.”

Biologicals

“For the retail side of BRANDT, the biological market growth has been slower in our area than others, generally, this is due to our tremendous soils and their ability to mineralize nutrition naturally,” McClelland says. “We do expect that space to continue to grow and the delivery of biological products to the soil will evolve into a planter box application.”

Biological account for some of the drive forward.

“We feel that biologicals segment will continue to grow and can bring new value to our customers,” says Lance Ruppert, Manager, Strategic Market Development, GROWMARK. “We are actively looking for best-in-class products and believe that even better products will be coming in the future. Seed applied biologicals that can applied in a dry form, at or just before the planter, look to be growth areas with much promise for grower value and operational efficiency.”

Providers expect biological seeds and seed treatments will continue increase their role in their role in the market segment.

“Biologicals have been an important part of seed treatments for many years, and our ability to incorporate them is rapidly advancing,” says Rian Bernhardt, Portfolio Manager, Crop Protection North America at Loveland Products Inc.

The growth of biological products is attributed to a variety of factors.

“I think our main goal has always been to create a product that not only stacks up well against other biologicals but against synthetic chemistries as well,” says Nick Wytinck, PhD., Research Director, Heads Up Plant Protectants Inc. “Moving forward we are taking that same mindset into the development of new products. We want something that works time after time, is simple to use and provides a needed solution for farmers.

“We are heavily incorporating new technology into our R&D for seed treatment,” Wytinck continues. “It is very rewarding and fulfilling to take the decades of field trial data that we’ve accumulated and use some new-school technologies, whether it be utilizing transcriptomics, genomics, or computational biology to put the puzzle pieces together.”