Fertilizer Price Volatility Drives Shift Toward Precision Ag and Smarter Input Use

Global fertilizer markets are once again under pressure, as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and lingering trade uncertainties continue to tighten availability and push prices higher. Industry analysts note that growers and retailers alike are bracing for prolonged volatility, with limited expectation of near-term relief as legal, logistical, and geopolitical challenges slow the market’s ability to rebalance.

With a significant share of global urea exports moving through key maritime corridors, recent disruptions have driven prices sharply higher, according to Craig Thackaberry, Agricultural Sales Manager at ZenaDrone.

“Prices haven’t just moved — they’ve skyrocketed,” Thackaberry says. “We’re seeing urea quoted around €900 per ton, up from the mid-€700s just weeks ago.”

The surge is reminiscent of volatility seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but this time, growers are entering the season with a heightened awareness of both price and supply risk.

Supply Uncertainty Adds New Pressure

While many farmers secured fertilizer supplies in advance — a practice that became more common after 2022 — concerns are now shifting toward availability later in the season.

In Ireland, where fertilizer is largely imported, roughly 60% of supply has already arrived. However, the remaining volumes are far less certain.

“Most farmers will have fertilizer in stock up to mid-year,” Thackaberry explains. “It’s when they go back into the market for the second half of the season that supply becomes a real concern.”

This dynamic is reinforcing what many in the industry now see as the “new normal”: ongoing uncertainty across both input costs and output prices.

“Everything you put into the ground now is with a bit of hope,” he says. “You don’t know where grain prices will land, and input costs keep moving.”

Adding to this broader market uncertainty is the fact that agriculture is now operating in a structurally more complex risk environment, says EarthDaily’s Andrew Pylypchuk, Global Director, Business Development – Agriculture.

“There are multiple layers of risk right now: input costs, commodity prices, weather variability, and geopolitical pressures,” he says. “Agribusiness leaders and farmers alike need to balance all of these while understanding how they impact their local markets.”

Rethinking Fertilizer Strategies

As prices climb and supply becomes less predictable, growers are being forced to rethink long-standing fertilizer practices.

Rather than applying standard rates across entire fields, many are beginning to scale back or adjust applications — even if it comes with some risk to yield.

“If you’re going to pull back on inputs, it’s going to hit your outputs,” Thackaberry notes. “But farmers are starting to think more carefully about where and how they use fertilizer.”

That shift toward more targeted decision-making is increasingly supported by satellite-driven analytics and precision agriculture tools.

Pylypchuk highlights how improved visibility is changing operational timing and input decisions across the value chain.

“Timing is everything,” Pylypchuk says. “These technologies help stakeholders understand when to act—whether it’s applying a fungicide or engaging with a grower on a specific issue.”

In some cases, this includes moving toward more performance-based input strategies and outcome-linked programs.

“Ultimately, it’s about improving operational efficiency across the value chain,” Pylypchuk adds.

Precision Ag Gains Momentum

Rising costs are accelerating interest in tools that can help growers do more with less.

For instance, at ZenaTech, Thackaberry is seeing growing demand for drone-based crop analysis and variable rate application strategies. Using multispectral imaging, these systems can generate prescription maps that guide fertilizer application based on real-time field conditions.

“We can analyze a crop and give farmers a map showing exactly where inputs are needed,” Thackaberry says. “Instead of blanket spreading, they’re applying fertilizer only where it will have the most impact.”

In some cases, this approach can significantly reduce input use.

“You might cut fertilizer application by 20% or even 30% in certain areas,” Thackaberry says. “Any reduction like that is a big saving in this environment.”

From a broader systems perspective, Pylypchuk emphasizes that precision tools are gaining traction because they introduce objectivity into decision-making.

“One of the strengths of satellite-based tools is their ability to provide unbiased, objective measurements,” Pylypchuk says. “That helps inform decisions around inputs, fertilizer use, and resource allocation.”

Importantly, new service-based models are making these technologies more accessible. Rather than requiring large upfront investments, farmers can now access precision tools through subscription or pay-per-use models.

“That removes a lot of the barriers,” Thackaberry adds. “Farmers can get the benefit of the technology without the cost or complexity of owning it.”

From Short-Term Reaction to Long-Term Shift

While current market pressures are driving immediate changes, both experts suggest the impact could extend well beyond the current season.

“This started as a reaction to uncertainty,” Thackaberry says. “But it’s also pushing farmers to think more long term about how they manage inputs.”

Pylypchuk echoes this broader structural shift, noting that improved data and analytics are changing how agriculture interprets volatility itself.

“Greater transparency will likely lead to more stability in the market,” he says. “With better visibility into production at local, regional, and global levels, stakeholders can make more informed decisions about supply and demand.”

Sustainability and Efficiency Align

The shift toward more precise input use is also aligning with broader sustainability goals.

In Ireland, for example, farmers are increasingly incorporating clover into grass systems to naturally fix nitrogen and reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers. Cover cropping and other practices are also gaining traction.

“Anything that reduces reliance on imported nitrogen is a win,” Thackaberry says.

Precision technologies further support these efforts by minimizing overapplication and improving efficiency at the field level.

“It’s about using fertilizer where it’s needed — and not where it’s not,” he adds.

Challenges Remain, But Momentum Builds

Despite the clear benefits, the adoption of new technologies is not without challenges. Cost, complexity, and familiarity still play a role, particularly for growers who may be hesitant to embrace new tools.

However, Thackaberry notes that hands-on demonstrations and support from advisers are helping bridge that gap.

“When farmers see it working on their own fields, that’s when it clicks,” he says.

Looking ahead, he expects continued volatility to act as a catalyst for change.

“Agriculture is very good at adapting,” Thackaberry says. “When challenges come, farmers find ways to respond — and right now, that means getting smarter about inputs.”