Commodity Classic 2015: Playing The Waiting Game

Last week in Phoenix, AZ, the Commodity Classic celebrated its 20th anniversary. And while there was much fanfare for the show itself, including music, dancers and a few speeches, there were only a handful of new product introductions – something the show has traditionally presented in bunches.

On the big equipment side, Hagie Manufacturing once again showed off its special Black Widow sprayer to attendees, which features a 1,600-gallon product tank and 132-foot boom. However, John Deere’s recently announced smaller sprayer, the R4023, was again missing in action.

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Likewise, some crop protection companies spent much of the 2015 Commodity Classic talking about products they have in the governmental approval process pipeline, with most expecting some form of federal sign-off before the year is out. Others such as BASF talked about their development pipeline and how new products are forthcoming “in time for the 2016 growing season and beyond.”

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But to me, perhaps the most interesting news from this year’s Commodity Classic had to do with the waiting game being played by growers. For several months now, USDA planting intention surveys have indicated corn acreage in 2015 will drop as more growers shift their production into higher priced soybeans instead. In a normal year, these seed purchase decisions are made during the early winter months so that by the time the Commodity Classic comes around in late February, there’s not much left to be decided upon.

Have you noticed a slowness among growers making seed purchases in your area?

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Except this year, that is. One of the Nebraska growers I spoke with in Phoenix said many producers in his area haven’t made up their minds yet which seeds they will plant for 2015. “My seed sales representative says this has been his worst sales year ever up to this point because almost no orders have come through yet,” said the grower. Later during the event, a friend of mine that covers the seed business said this same “wait-and-see” approach to 2015 was also at work in their area as well.

So what kind of year will 2015 turn out to be? At this point, I guess we will all just have to wait and see.

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