Why Tariffs Haven’t Raised Crop Protection Prices — Yet

One of the key topics discussed during a recent episode of CropLife Retail Week was a question many ag retailers have been asking throughout the past year: If tariffs have reshaped global trade, why haven’t they significantly increased crop protection prices?

The answer, according to industry experts Jim DeLisi, principal at Fanwood Chemical, and Jeff Pritchard, president of WestLink Ag, lies less in Washington and more in marketplace fundamentals. While tariffs and trade disputes continue to create uncertainty, oversupplied inventories, aggressive competition among generic manufacturers, and supplier pricing strategies have largely absorbed those costs before they reach retailers.

“There are still a lot of moving pieces,” DeLisi said. “The best number I can find is that $104 billion in refunds have been approved, and about $75 billion has been paid out.”

Those refunds stem from court challenges to tariffs imposed on imported goods, including agrochemicals. While billions have already been returned to importers, DeLisi noted that another $50 billion to $60 billion in potential refunds could still be distributed once ongoing legal proceedings conclude.

Even so, retailers expecting those refunds to translate into lower prices haven’t seen much change.

Inventory Continues to Outweigh Tariffs

For Pritchard, the reason is straightforward.

“The blunt answer is no,” he said when asked whether retailers are seeing tariff refunds passed back through suppliers. “We haven’t seen, to be honest with you, a lot of impact on pricing due to rebates or tariffs.”

Instead, prices have remained historically low because the crop protection market continues to work through excess inventories that accumulated during and after the supply chain disruptions of the COVID era.

“With so much inventory in the market the last two to three years, prices have pretty much stayed compressed across the major high-volume agrochemicals, especially on the generic side,” Pritchard said.

That inventory overhang has forced suppliers to compete aggressively for market share. According to Pritchard, some companies are prioritizing cash flow over profitability, leading to what he described as “behavioral pricing” — where suppliers quickly match or beat competitors’ prices to secure business.

“If I’m sitting with a supplier and I tell them we can buy truckload volumes elsewhere at a certain price, they’ll come down immediately,” he said. “A lot of companies are trying to jump on 2027 early and offer programs now in an effort to gain as much revenue as they can before whatever’s going to happen happens.”

Tariffs Become Diluted Through the Supply Chain

Another reason retailers haven’t experienced major price increases is that tariff costs become diluted as products move through the manufacturing process.

“If you import an active ingredient and you pay a tariff on it, by the time it gets formulated, diluted, packaged and shipped, the amount of the actual increase is greatly diluted,” DeLisi explained.

While that dynamic changes when tariffs reach extreme levels—as they briefly did on some Chinese imports—more moderate tariff rates often become difficult to detect in the final product price.

“I would not say that was the case when the tariffs were well over 100% for a short period of time on China,” he said. “That’s a big hit. But when they’re 20% or 25%, it gets diluted so far down the supply chain that sometimes it can be hard to find.”

One Molecule Could Be Different

Although the broader crop protection market remains stable, both speakers identified glyphosate as the product retailers should watch most closely.

Pritchard said many suppliers are effectively waiting on the outcome of Bayer’s trade case before making significant pricing decisions.

“We’re seeing very limited activity from our suppliers that supply us with glyphosate because they’re waiting for this Bayer situation to play out,” he said.

If Bayer prevails, Pritchard believes glyphosate could become the exception to today’s pricing environment.

“I truly feel that if Bayer succeeds, we’re going to see probably a 2X increase in the prices we’re paying today for glyphosate from the generic suppliers we deal with,” he said.

For now, however, intense competition continues to keep prices low. WestLink alone works with more than 20 suppliers offering glyphosate formulations, creating significant downward pressure on pricing.

Pritchard noted that an analysis of major off-patent crop protection products — including glyphosate, glufosinate, dicamba, and 2,4-D — showed overall market values declining roughly 23% since the post-COVID highs of 2022.

“You’re talking somewhere around three-quarters of a billion dollars of market value that has basically disappeared based on price decreases,” he said.

Uncertainty Remains

Despite today’s relatively favorable buying environment, DeLisi cautioned retailers against assuming conditions will remain unchanged.

Several trade issues — including expiring tariff provisions, ongoing investigations into imports produced with forced labor, and potential new duties on Chinese glyphosate — could reshape the market over the coming months.

“If you said to me, ‘What’s the tariff situation going to be after July 24?’ the answer is: I don’t know,” DeLisi said.

For retailers, the message is clear: today’s market is being driven more by inventory and competition than by tariffs, but that balance could shift quickly as trade policy evolves.

“There are a lot of geopolitical things that are going to impact this business,” DeLisi said. “Keep your eyes and ears open. Inventory is probably your friend, and just buckle up for kind of a roller coaster ride — especially if you’re heavily involved in glyphosate.”

Editor’s Note: This discussion was part of a recent episode of CropLife Retail Week featuring Jim DeLisi of Fanwood Chemical and Jeff Pritchard of WestLink Ag. To hear the complete conversation — including additional discussion on supply chains, generic crop protection products and planning for the 2027 season — view the full episode of Retail Week.