What Trade Volatility Means for U.S. Ag Retailers — and How to Prepare
As trade policy uncertainty continues to ripple through global agriculture, U.S. ag retailers are increasingly on the front lines of its impact. From pricing volatility to shifting input costs and customer risk management, trade disruptions are no longer abstract policy debates — they are business realities. Those themes were highlighted during a recent episode of AgriBusiness Global Report, a sister brand to CropLife, featuring Bob Trogele, CEO of ProAgInvest, who shared his outlook on tariffs, global trade realignments, and what lies ahead for U.S. agriculture.
For ag retailers, Trogele’s core message was straightforward: volatility is no longer temporary, and planning assumptions must change accordingly. “Constant change is something we have to get used to,” he said, adding that tariffs are likely to remain embedded in the U.S. trade framework for the foreseeable future.
Trogele described tariffs as less of a negotiating tactic and more of a durable revenue source. “From a U.S. perspective, tariffs are a tax,” he said. “Governments like taking in money and distributing it.” While initially implemented during the Trump administration, many tariffs were carried forward by the Biden administration — a signal, Trogele believes, that they are politically difficult to unwind.
For ag retailers, this matters because tariffs can influence everything from fertilizer and crop protection pricing to equipment availability and logistics costs. Trogele noted that tariff revenues have reached historic levels. “The tariffs coming in under the current agreements are the highest ever in terms of revenue flowing into the U.S. government,” he said. That makes a rapid policy reversal unlikely, regardless of election outcomes.
Retailers should also be paying close attention to unfinished trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China. “There are still some major deals that have to be finalized, and one of them is the U.S. and China,” Trogele said. He pointed out that China failed to fully meet the commitments of earlier trade agreements, contributing to prolonged negotiations and continued uncertainty.
Those unresolved talks can have downstream consequences for U.S. growers — and by extension, retailers. Export uncertainty affects commodity prices, which influence growers’ purchasing decisions, risk tolerance, and willingness to invest in premium inputs or new technology. Trogele said negotiations are becoming more detailed and enforcement-focused. “They’re trying to put more substance into them — clear ‘you get this, I get this’ terms,” he explained.
Despite the uncertainty, Trogele expects clarity to improve in the near term. “I expect them to be finalized within the next six months,” he said, citing pressure from financial markets and the political calendar. For retailers, even incremental clarity can help with inventory planning, supplier negotiations, and customer financing conversations.
However, Trogele cautioned that not all tariffs serve a strategic purpose. Some, he said, are inherently inflationary — particularly when applied to goods not produced domestically. “We tax pineapples coming into the United States even though we don’t produce pineapples,” he said, calling it an example of an unnecessary tariff. For ag retailers, similar dynamics can show up in imported inputs or raw materials that raise costs without strengthening domestic supply chains.
Beyond tariffs themselves, Trogele sees a broader realignment in how global business is conducted. “There’s a reallocation of the world order of doing business,” he said. Countries will continue to adapt their trade relationships in ways that best serve their own interests, and the U.S. ag sector will have to respond accordingly.
That response, Trogele emphasized, must be rooted in adaptability. For ag retailers, this means rethinking traditional planning cycles and embracing more dynamic strategies.
“You need to be in a constant state of adaptation because things are moving in a very volatile way,” he said.
Practically speaking, that may involve tighter communication with growers, more flexible inventory management, diversified supplier relationships, and closer attention to global signals that once felt removed from local retail operations. Technology, financial tools, and data-driven decision-making will also play a larger role as retailers help growers navigate uncertainty.
“This whole issue hasn’t settled,” Trogele said. “Until it does, there will be a lot of give and take depending on where you sit.”
For U.S. ag retailers, the takeaway is clear: trade policy may be shaped in Washington and negotiated overseas, but its effects are felt at the counter, in the warehouse, and in conversations with growers. Preparing for a future defined by ongoing change may be one of the most important services retailers can provide — both to their customers and to their own businesses.
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