Tariffs, Trade, and Turbulence: What Ag Retailers Need to Know Now

Recent developments in U.S. trade policy continue to create uncertainty across the agricultural supply chain — and few areas are feeling the impact more than ag retailers. During a recent appearance on CropLife Retail Week, Jim DeLisi of Fanwood Chemical shared timely insights into tariffs, global trade tensions, and what they could mean for the crop protection industry in the months ahead.

Supreme Court Decision Triggers Massive Refund Process

One of the most significant shifts came earlier this year when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down broad tariffs implemented during the Trump administration. While that decision clarified the legal boundaries of presidential authority, it also triggered a massive and complicated refund process.

“In mid-February, the Supreme Court said, ‘Sorry, you overstepped the bounds of that law,’ and declared the tariffs invalid,” DeLisi explained. “But what they did not say was that the government had to refund the money.”

That omission created uncertainty — but not for long. The Court of International Trade quickly stepped in, mandating that refunds be issued. The scale of those repayments is staggering, with DeLisi estimating totals between $160 billion and $170 billion.

Customs has already begun implementing a system to process claims, though the process is far from simple. “It’s going to be in at least two pieces,” DeLisi noted. “The first ability to apply for funds has already rolled out, and refunds are supposed to be relatively automatic within 60 days, with 7% interest.”

However, not all entries are eligible under the current system. “About 40% of the entries have already been liquidated, and there still is not a process for requesting refunds for those,” he said, adding that resolving those claims could become “costly and time-consuming” if formal protests are required.

Who Gets the Money?

For ag retailers and their supplier partners, the bigger question may not be how refunds are processed — but who ultimately benefits. DeLisi made it clear that, legally, the importer of record controls the funds.

“If you are the importer of record, it’s your money,” he said. “You have to decide what to do with it.”

That reality introduces another layer of complexity for the crop protection market, where tariffs may have been absorbed, passed along, or diluted through formulation.

“If you take a crop protection chemical, that tariff might be a dollar on the technical product,” DeLisi explained. “By the time it’s formulated, it might be a nickel or a dime. Calculating all that out is going to be extraordinarily difficult.”

New Tariff Actions Already Taking Shape

Looking ahead, DeLisi emphasized that tariffs are far from a closed chapter. In fact, new actions are already underway through other legal mechanisms.

“There are several sections in U.S. law where the administration has an enormous amount of leeway,” he said, pointing specifically to Section 301. “They’ve already begun investigations on forced labor and overcapacity issues.”

These investigations could eventually lead to new tariffs, but not immediately. “There’s a process — public hearings, legal reviews — and it takes time,” DeLisi said. That delay could create a narrow window of opportunity later this summer.

“If the current 10% tariffs expire on July 24 and the new ones aren’t ready, there could be a window where imports come in with no additional tariffs,” he explained.

Still, capitalizing on that opportunity won’t be easy. “The only ones who can really take advantage are companies using bonded warehouses or free trade zones,” DeLisi noted. “Timing is everything — minutes can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

China Trade Tensions Continue to Pressure Agriculture

Beyond U.S. policy, global dynamics — particularly with China — continue to weigh heavily on agriculture. Retaliatory tariffs have already taken a toll on U.S. farmers.

“It’s been very painful for our farmers and ranchers,” DeLisi said. “One of the places China chose to retaliate was agricultural commodities.”

At the same time, rising input costs are squeezing margins across the board. “The value of corn or wheat is about the same as it was 15 or 20 years ago, while inputs like fertilizers and crop protection chemicals have gone up,” he noted.

While diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China could ease some tensions, DeLisi cautioned that numerous geopolitical and economic factors remain in play. “There’s just so much going on,” he said. “It’s hard to predict what it’s going to look like over the next few months.”

USMCA Deadline Looms

Closer to home, another critical deadline is approaching with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The trade pact faces a required review by June 30, and its future could have significant implications for ag inputs and exports.

“USMCA is unique in that it includes a six-year checkpoint,” DeLisi explained. “The agreement needs to be reaffirmed or enter a renegotiation phase.”

For the ag chemical industry, key provisions — including rules of origin and duty drawback — are especially important. “If we want to maintain a viable formulation base in the United States, those rules need to hold,” he said.

A Complex Road Ahead

Ultimately, the convergence of tariff policy, global trade tensions, and regional agreements is creating a complex and evolving landscape for ag retailers.

“It’s highly complex,” DeLisi emphasized. “There are a lot of moving pieces, and it’s going to take time for everything to play out.”

For retailers navigating these uncertainties, staying informed will be essential.

Want to hear more from Jim DeLisi on tariffs, trade, and what’s ahead for agriculture? Watch the full episode of CropLife Retail Week for additional insights and analysis.