Navigating Uncertainty: Practical Insights for Ag Retailers from Economist Megan Roberts

At a time when ag retailers and their grower customers are grappling with economic pressure, market unpredictability, and evolving technologies, seasoned ag economist Megan Roberts offers grounded insights rooted in real-world experience — both in the field and behind the data.

Speaking at a Fireside Chat at Tech Hub Live 2025 in July, Roberts, an economist with Compeer Financial and part-time farmer herself, provided a timely assessment of today’s ag economy and how retailers can support their customers through both challenges and opportunities.

Interest Rates: Holding Steady, But Still a Factor

The conversation opened with one of the hottest (and most persistent) topics on producers’ minds: interest rates. While 2024 saw four rate cuts from the Federal Reserve — amounting to roughly a one-point drop — consumer borrowing costs didn’t follow suit.

“Because of some bond market dynamics, we actually saw interest rates go up during that time in 2024,” Roberts explained. Since the start of 2025, the Fed has held steady, with a possible one to two additional cuts projected later this year.

For ag retailers, these fluctuations matter. “At Compeer, the number one thing I get asked about is interest rates and where they’re headed,” Roberts said. “It’s likely we’ll see minimal change through the rest of the year, but uncertainty still looms — and it impacts how your customers make buying decisions.”

Grain Markets: Strong Supply, Weak Prices

Another source of volatility for growers is the grain market, where signals have been inconsistent and hard to interpret.

“We’re seeing challenges on both the corn and soybean sides,” said Roberts. “At the start of 2025, we had some positive signals — like a lower stocks-to-use ratio — that pushed prices up. But then uncertainty crept in, especially around trade policy, and we still don’t have clarity there.”

With a USDA forecast of 181 bushels per acre and historically large corn acreage, supply is robust — but that’s creating price pressure, with limited profit potential heading into harvest. “It’s likely to be a continued challenging year for grain prices,” she added.

Tight Margins Demand Clear ROI

What does this mean for ag retailers? In a word: value.

“Every dollar matters more,” Roberts stressed. “This is the time to double down on showing your value. That might mean helping customers make the case for adopting new technology — but only when that technology clearly saves time or money.”

Roberts speaks from experience. She and her husband farm corn and soybeans, and every tech decision on their farm has to prove its worth quickly.

“In a tough economic time, ROI has to be faster,” she said. “We’re not looking at a five-year payoff — we’re looking at how soon this investment puts money back in our pocket.”

The Basics Still Matter

While the ag sector races ahead with innovation and data, Roberts says success still hinges on mastering the fundamentals.

“I always go back to the basics: understanding your cost of production and where your break-even point is,” she said. “Where can you find that extra cent or dime per bushel of corn or soybeans?”

She urges ag retailers to help farmers squeeze more value from every input and every acre. “Whether you’re the farmer or someone on the service side, it’s about making sure the technology you’re using is delivering real value — because that’s what gets you through the hard years.”

A Cautious Approach to AI — For Now

While artificial intelligence continues to reshape forecasting and analytics in agriculture, Roberts offers a word of caution based on her hands-on experience.

“AI isn’t always great at reading USDA documents,” she noted. “It struggles with inconsistent formatting and tends to pick the most frequently repeated number — which isn’t always the most accurate.”

That said, she sees potential: “It is improving. I’ve seen some progress from January to now. I hope I can use it more in the future — but for now, I have to spot-check everything.”

Bottom Line: Ag Retailers Have a Vital Role

As growers contend with thin margins and unpredictable market forces, ag retailers are uniquely positioned to support smarter decision-making and more efficient operations. Roberts’ insights underscore the importance of being more than just a product provider — today’s ag retailers must be trusted advisors.

“In tight years, good managers live to farm another year,” she said. “And that’s what everyone — from growers to ag service providers — should be focused on helping make happen.”

• Watch: Fireside Chat With Compeer Financial’s Megan Roberts