What Impact Will Farm Bill Uncertainties, Global Dynamics Have on 2024 U.S. Ag Economy?

Despite recession warnings and adverse precursors in 2022, the United States’ economy performed better than predicted in 2023. Purdue University Department of Agricultural Economics experts now look to 2024 and provide insights into the national economy, trade, policy and food prices. These findings were recently published in the Purdue Agricultural Economics Report’s annual outlook, including potential outcomes of a delayed farm bill.

“As we enter 2024, the complexities surrounding the farm bill debate persist. With federal spending cuts in focus, the projected cost of the farm bill will likely take center stage in agricultural committee deliberations this year,” said Roman Keeney, associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University and co-editor of the report.

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“The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report will closely monitor the evolving farm bill situation through its policy brief series, offering insights into critical legislation impacting farmers nationwide.”

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Inside the issue, Purdue agricultural economists predict an overall positive outlook for 2024 with modest GDP growth, low unemployment, decreasing inflation and a potential lowering of interest rates.

“The Federal Reserve increased their policy rate at the end of 2023 but has kept it stable since August. Recession is a possibility, but it would be sheer stubbornness to continue predicting recession in the face of so much good news,” said Larry DeBoer, professor emeritus of agricultural economics. “My guess: There is no recession in 2024.”

To read the full Purdue Agricultural Economics Report, click here. This year’s annual outlook provides insights covering the following topics:

  • The U.S. economy
  • Trade and trade policy
  • Predictions of a new farm bill
  • Food prices
  • Economic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war
  • Generational gaps in rural communities
  • Dairy markets
  • Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide
  • Agricultural credit
  • Farmland and cash rents

The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report is a quarterly publication from the Department of Agricultural Economics. Articles in the annual outlook issue are intended to provide a road map for understanding challenges facing the agricultural economy.

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