The Certainty of Uncertainty: Ag Leaders Confront Volatile Markets and Rising Expenses
February 19, 2026 Today’s world of agriculture is unlike any before it. That was the key takeaway from the educational address given by Dr. Joe Glauber, former USDA Chief Economist and current Research Fellow Emeritus with the International Food Policy Research Institute, at the 2025 Agricultural Retailers Association annual conference this past December.
“I’ve dealt with trade for some time, and in the 40-plus years I’ve been involved with agriculture, I haven’t seen quite the uncertainty I see right now on the trade side,” said Glauber. “Certainly, for the manufacturers, ag retailers, and anyone else dealing with the environment, they are having to make decisions with things around them changing very, very rapidly.”
This situation has been made even more difficult, he added, by the less than stellar economic performances of the world’s two largest countries.
“This year, there has been much slower growth in the U.S. across the board,” said Glauber. “And you are also seeing China’s economic growth declining, too.”
Combined, these factors have contributed to a difficult economic environment for U.S. agriculture. “The story in ag is that crop prices have really been depressed from the run-up they experienced in 2021-22,” he said. “But at the same time, crop input prices — especially fertilizer — are high. They are down from their peaks during 2022, but they are still quite high versus historic norms.” Glauber pointed to diammonium phosphate as remaining stubbornly high due in part to China’s restrictions on exporting the product.
Export/Import Declines
Somewhat more troubling for U.S. agriculture is the tariff situation with many key trading partners, he said. “Through the end of 2025, China had only purchased 2.5 million tons of U.S. soybeans because of the tariffs,” said Glauber. “This was the lowest export amount to the country by the U.S. since 2006.”
Instead, China spent much of 2025 buying soybeans from South American countries such as Argentina and Brazil. “From January to October 2025, Brazil shipped 79 million metric tons to China,” he said. “That was up 10 million metric tons from the same period in 2024.”
In addition, U.S. ag imports were also problematic. In fact, when comparing the numbers between August 2024 with those of August 2025, U.S. ag imports were down across the board, he said.
“U.S. ag imports fell 7.5% in August 2025 compared to their year ago levels,” he said. “Some numbers include a 3% decline from Canada, 17% from the European Union (EU), 28% from Mexico, and 42% from China.”
However, Glauber did offer listeners to his speech a glimmer of hope. “Global stocks of commodities are still very tight,” he said. “It wouldn’t take much — such as a severe drought in Russia or weather troubles in the EU — to make global crop prices rebound.”
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