Crop Protection Mergers: Will They Or Won’t They?

Fall is in full swing and many sports fans probably spend the better parts of their time looking at the betting odds involving their favorite football teams, both professional and college. Of course, given recent events, those of us that follow the agricultural market are wondering virtually the same thing when it comes to crop protection product supplier mergers.

Although it’s almost over, 2016 will go down in the annals of agricultural history as the year when several of the crop protection industry’s largest players decided to join forces. At present, three such deals are on the table – ChemChina acquiring Syngenta, Dow and DuPont entering into a “merger of equals,” and Bayer buying Monsanto. As the year heads towards its close, all three deals are being reviewed by various regulatory agencies across the globe, with most analysts not expecting any kind of final sign-off until the calendar has officially turned to 2017.

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But there are some in the marketplace who are wondering if all these proposed deals will be approved. For instance, the European Union (EU) has once again suspended its approval of the Dow/DuPont merger to “gather more information.” In addition, there are reports that several affected state agencies (including ones in agricultural-rich California) are planning to also weigh in on the Dow/DuPont and Bayer/Monsanto get-togethers.

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Recently, CropLife magazine held its annual PACE Advisory Council meeting in Chicago, IL, to discuss the hot topics of agriculture. Naturally, all the crop protection supplier mergers was one of these, and led to some lengthy debate. Most council members believed that each of these deals would eventually happen, after some extensive business divestitures were promised. Others weren’t as certain and believed a different combination of companies might eventually happen instead.

When I asked for some odds from participants, there emerged two views. Virtually all present thought the ChemChina/Syngenta deal had the best chance of happening. As for Dow/DuPont and Bayer/Monsanto deals, the odds were a bit lower – somewhere between 40%-60% for them happening with some changes and even money, 50%-50%.

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