Crop Nutrients Looking to Help ‘Feed a Growing World’
January 22, 2025 
For the fertilizer catecgory 2024 wasn’t the best of times. In fact, in its assessment of the sector as the 2024 planting season got underway, market analytical firm Rabobank made this prediction:
“Operating costs for farmers, especially for fertilizers, are returning to pre-Ukraine war levels, while at the same time commodity prices are falling,” wrote Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst — Farm Inputs, in the company’s spring 2024 report. “Despite these headwinds, the fertilizer sector is showing resilience. Geopolitical factors, among other issues, could present further obstacles, yet the growth in fertilizer use is anticipated to persist.”
Once the dust settled on the 2024 growing season, Rabobank’s market prediction for fertilizer appeared a little less rosy. According to data collected in the 2024 CropLife 100 survey of the nation’s top ag retailers, the fertilizer category saw its overall revenues significantly decline. Sales dropped from $22.4 billion in 2023 to $19.9 billion — an 11% decrease.
But the revenue numbers only told part of the story for the fertilizer category in 2024. According to many of the nation’s top ag retailers, their fertilizer volumes were almost identical to the ones they recorded during the 2023 growing season. Instead, the financial misfortunes for crop nutrients in 2024 stemmed from lower overall prices.
“Yes, the cost of the fertilizer for nitrogen and potash have come down significantly in the past year – not so much for phosphates,” says Rob Clayton, Senior Vice President, Retail North America for Nutrien Ag Solutions. “But yes, the volumes of fertilizer being used by growers was similar to what we saw in 2023.”
The Early Read for 2025
Going into the 2025 growing season, ag retailers are hopeful fertilizer fortunes will bounce back some. However, according to George Secor, President/CEO at Sunrise Cooperative, companies like his will need to keep a close eye on the sector for a variety of reasons.
“We will have to watch our local area very closely,” says Secor. “Fertilizer prices probably started at values somewhat higher than was expected by most. This higher value caused some not to participate and others have not been able to participate due to the high cost of interest. This fear of interest costs will probably put ag retailers who are very close to each other in very different positions, depending on how they have to navigate these waters.
“With this type of question though, I tell our team we just have to focus on what we can control,” he continues. “That is us. Our growers have been rewarded nicely by buying fertilizer and selling grain up to a year in advance of when they actually need the fertilizer. We have to help our growers stay focused on the ratio and make good decisions on both the input as well as the output and not worry about what other ag retailers are doing around us.”
In its market evaluation for fertilizer in 2025, Rabobank also foresees some modest gains in demand and revenues as economic conditions hopefully stabilize somewhat over the next two years.
Potash pellets — called chiclets — in a warehouse at Nutrien’s Allan mine in Saskatchewan.
“Nitrogen demand will likely continue to recover slowly in 2025 and pick up slightly in 2026,” wrote Fonseca in the company’s future market outlook report. “Phosphate demand will remain under pressure in 2025, with limited growth in 2026. Demand for potash, which currently has more favorable prices, is gently recovering. The recovery will likely slow in 2025 but increase again in 2026.”
In his mind, says Nutrien’s Clayton, large ag retailers can also help rebuild market demand for crop nutrients among grower-customers through education and diligence. “The retail annual sales for our company in nitrogen, phosphates, and potash in North America was 10 million tons last year,” he says of the 2024 season. “There’s no point in being big in this industry if you can’t do big things as a company. That’s what Nutrien intends to do when it comes to fertilizer in 2025.”
Feeding the World
As Clayton points out, one of Nutrien’s marketplace missions is to help those in agriculture feed the future. “We touch more growers through our retail network than any other retailer on the planet,” he claims. “We collaborate with growers and connect them with the knowledge and solutions to achieve their full potential.”
Perhaps supporting this view is the performance of one of the smaller segments of the crop nutrients industry — micronutrients. According to the 2024 CropLife 100 survey, 53% of the nation’s top ag retailers saw their revenues in this segment of their businesses grow between 1% and more than 5% during 2024. In contrast, 34% of respondents saw their micronutrients sales decline between 1% and more than 5% during last year in this segment. The remaining 13% had flat sales year-over-year.
This market performance for micronutrients led to one of the industry’s biggest news items of late 2024 — pairing of two well-known micronutrient suppliers. In early November 2024, Tessenderlo Kerley, Inc. announced it had acquired Tiger-Sul Products, LLC.
According to Russell Sides, Exec-utive Vice President of Tessenderlo Kerley, the acquisition will strengthen the company’s its specialty fertilizer portfolio. “We’re excited to welcome Tiger-Sul to the Tessenderlo Kerley team, and we look forward to our ability to offer customers Tiger-Sul’s complementary crop nutrition and soil enhancement products,” says Sides.
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