The Post-Patent Wave Is Coming: What It Means for Ag Retailers

The shift from branded crop protection products to generic and post-patent alternatives could create significant opportunities for growers — and new challenges for ag retailers. That was among the topics discussed during a recent episode of Retail Week, where Asmus Farm Supply’s Amy Asmus and R.W. Griffin’s Griffin Evans examined how the changing crop protection landscape could affect retail businesses heading into 2027.

As more active ingredients and products move off patent, retailers will need to pay close attention to inventory values, purchasing decisions, and margins as competition increases and prices potentially decline.

A Growing Share of the Crop Protection Portfolio

For retailers, the potential impact is particularly significant because some widely used herbicide programs rely heavily on chemistries that are approaching or entering the post-patent market.

Asmus said she recently reviewed the herbicide modes of action represented in her company’s product portfolio and found substantial exposure to Group 15 chemistry.

“In the corn pre-emergence space, 10 out of 11 products, or 91% of the products that we use, have a Group 15,” Asmus said.

The numbers were also significant in other crop protection categories. She noted that 58% of the corn post-emergence products, 65% of soybean pre-emergence products, and 50% of soybean post-emergence products in her company’s portfolio contain a Group 15 component.

For retailers, that makes the arrival of additional generic products more than simply a pricing story.

When Product Prices Fall, Inventory Values Matter

As generic competition enters the market, growers stand to benefit from lower product prices. But retailers could find themselves holding inventory purchased at prices that no longer reflect the market.

Evans said R.W. Griffin is already paying close attention to its Group 15 inventory.

“I’m looking at our Group 15 herbicide inventory very, very closely because there’s going to be a devaluation,” Evans said.

That creates a familiar challenge for retailers that have dealt with commodity price fluctuations in other parts of their businesses.

“It’s going to be good for the grower, but from a retail standpoint, we’re going to be upside down on a lot of that inventory if it doesn’t move,” Evans said.

The issue could become increasingly important as more manufacturers and registrants enter the market and competition accelerates.

A Crop Protection Market That Looks More Like Fertilizer?

Asmus sees parallels between what’s happening in crop protection and the commodity dynamics retailers have long dealt with in fertilizer.

“It’s not really new for retailers because we do this with the commoditized fertilizer market,” she said. “You have to make sure that you’re not getting upside down with the price shifts.”

The difference is that retailers haven’t historically encountered the same degree of price volatility from post-patent competition across the crop protection portfolio.

That could change.

Asmus noted that the coming shift could have a major impact on the market, potentially rivaling previous transformations such as the move to generic glyphosate.

For retailers, the challenge will be determining how aggressively to purchase branded products, how quickly inventory needs to turn and how pricing strategies should change as generic alternatives become more prevalent.

The Grower Wins — But Retailers Must Adapt

There is an important upside to the transition. Increased competition can lower input costs for farmers, particularly if generic products provide performance comparable to the branded products they replace.

“It’s actually a win for the grower if the quality of the products that come out is up to the standards we’re used to,” Asmus said.

But lower grower prices don’t necessarily translate into an easier operating environment for retailers. As margins compress, retailers may have to place greater emphasis on inventory management, purchasing discipline, and the value of services surrounding the products they sell.

That could ultimately accelerate a broader evolution already underway in ag retail.

Asmus said independent retailers are increasingly asking what their role will look like in the future and how they can continue to provide value within the production system.

The post-patent wave may be one more reason for retailers to ask those questions now rather than later.

---

Want to hear the full conversation? Watch the latest episode of Retail Week to hear Amy Asmus, Griffin Evans, and CropLife Editor Eric Sfiligoj discuss the post-patent crop protection market, Farm Bill uncertainty, ag technology, AI, and what the future may hold for U.S. ag retailers.