To be fair, I’m certain that every person reading this column thinks their dad is (or was) a bit odd at times. With my father, the most peculiar thing occurs each year on his birthday. Just before blowing out the candles on his cake, he turns to me and says: “This will be my last birthday,” implying the invisible phantom of death is just around the corner. He’s been uttering this phrase, without fail, since his 29th birthday. This past March, he turned 71.
I’m continually perplexed that anyone would give so much thought to something that might happen — particularly 42 years worth of worrying. In many ways, there are two groups within the ag community that seem to adhere to my father’s take on birthdays. One is the fertilizer dealer block.
Each spring when I talk with dealerships about the outlook for the upcoming fertilizer season, I inevitably hear this reply from someone: “Supplies could be incredibly tight this year. I’m not sure everyone will be able to get the fertilizer they need to keep their customers happy.” This comment is usually followed by a prediction of massive fertilizer shortages, with stunted crops the result. This month, I celebrate my eighth year covering this industry, and I’ve heard about the “no fertilizer phantom” the entire time.
In this issue, CropLife® shines the spotlight on the state of crop nutrients in 2008. As always, the nation’s fertilizer dealers sold themselves short in their ability to handle tight supplies and higher prices. Overall, to quote one retailer in our cover story: “sales nationally have shot through the roof.” Furthermore, shortages were kept to a minimum, with few nutrient-deprived crops in the mix.
Just as scared of negative phantoms are equipment manufacturers. In 2007, as crop prices and grower revenue started soaring, I expected equipment makers to universally ramp up their production to take advantage of the expected windfall in orders. But I was surprised that many were concerned about adding capacity. “I don’t want to get stuck with all that excess inventory if the trend doesn’t last,” said most.
I’ve just returned from the Midwest AG Industries Exposition. Despite another strong sales year in 2008, many equipment makers still aren’t convinced the demand for their products will hold and aren’t expanding. As a result, lead times for new equipment have stretched for many companies from four to six months to 10 to 12.
Back to my story, I take great pleasure in pointing out to my dad that the death phantom has thus far failed to show up. “True,” he says. “But one of these years, he will, and I’ll be right.”
Hopefully, fertilizer dealers and equipment manufacturers won’t take such an unwavering, fatalistic view in their lives and businesses. Yes, we have all seen “up” trends in ag that took sudden downturns. But does that mean we can never fully embrace the good times when they are here? The dealers and manufacturers I’ve come to know these past eight years are exceptional business people. Perhaps their biggest asset is their ability to adjust and adapt to market changes at a moment’s notice — which is why dire phantoms of doom have largely failed to materialize.
Certainly, the lean times will come again. But can’t we enjoy a couple of positive seasons without looking for negative phantoms in every corner?
