A well-known ag meteorologist shares his thoughts on Hurricane Gustav, soybean aphids, and the overall status of the corn and soybean crops.
Bryce Anderson, DTN meteorologist, says Hurricane Gustav’s rains provided a mixed bag for the U.S. soybean crop: For some, it was welcome relief from too-dry soils; for others, it flooded fields.
In the South, particularly in Arkansas and Louisiana, Gustav flooded fields where soybeans were moving into a preharvest mode. “This caused a fair amount of damage,” he says. “And I think that Gustav has actually been probably a hindrance to the soybean crop overall because of the fact that it flooded in the South.”
However, these same rains are providing very beneficial for soybeans in areas like Illinois, due in great part because of the late start the Midwestern soybean crops had this year. “They’re still dealing with beans that are filling and putting in their real weight in the beans,” Anderson says. “Considering that, I think that soybeans are going to get the most benefit in the Midwest.”
Right up to the end of August, there was still a lot of concern about soybean aphids. “I think that had to do with the fact that the soybean crop still has a long ways to go and still needed to have as much of its plant production capability as possible,” he says. “Also, it had been cool enough that the aphids had responded and had populated quite a bit. So there was still a lot of spraying for soybean aphids even up until the end of August.
“The calendar flips to September and just physiologically, when the nights start getting a little bit longer and cooler, the aphids migrate away from the soybean plant and they go more into their overwintering habitat of buckthorn,” says Anderson. Insecticide applications are now tailing off, yet “we’ve heard of producers who sprayed two and maybe even three times for aphids. But of course, you’re dealing with soybeans over $10 a bushel.”
And what about the corn crop?
“These rains are going to stabilize corn,” Anderson says. “I doubt that’s really going to add very much to the crop potential, but it might stabilize what’s there so that the plant doesn’t have to cannibalize any more of itself in order to put nutrients into the kernel. And from that standpoint, I think that it’ll stabilize the yield.
“I don’t think it’s really going to improve the prospects very much, but any stabilization will be beneficial for crop size,” he adds.
There are some states that won’t benefit at all from Gustav’s rains. “It doesn’t look like Gustav is going to be a big rainmaker in Indiana and Ohio and that’s unfortunate, because this is a very dry sector of the Corn Belt. This summer has been, in some cases, devastating to the crop situation for those guys.
“This late-season dryness has taken some potential out of both corn and soybean yields in the upper Midwest and over the eastern Midwest,” he explains. “I think that Iowa and Illinois pretty much have stayed on track to have a pretty decent crop and very close to what USDA’s been projecting. You’re going to have some loss in the dryland areas of eastern Nebraska that don’t have irrigation. Central Nebraska’s doing very well both with irrigated and dryland. South Dakota’s probably got a little edge taken off again, because it’s been turning dry during August.
“August basically had a jet stream track that ran across the U.S-Canadian border,” he continues. “Just along the border, from west to east, from British Columbia to Nova Scotia. And there was very little in the way of a storm track moved across the Corn Belt and that kept everything on the dry side. That was pretty much the effect until Tuesday of last week (Aug. 26).” That’s when Gustav showed up.
Anderson points out that key areas such as central Illinois and central Iowa have fared very well this season. “There’s still going to be a good corn crop,” he says. “At over 12 billion bushels, it’s going to be down from last year, but of course, there’s a little less acreage put in than there was a year ago.” He also takes into consideration the late-planted crop in the northern and far eastern segments of the Corn Belt and the areas affected by the midseason floods.
The corn crop in general is behind schedule on its maturity rate, which is at 6 percent overall. The average for Sept. 1 in Iowa would be 9 percent, but it’s currently only 1 percent and in Illinois, the average should be 19 percent, but it stands at just 2 percent, he states.
“This is a problem,” he says. “This is a concern because you’re in a situation where even if the first hard freeze comes at an average time on the calendar, it still could crimp quite a bit of the corn crop because the crop just isn’t far enough along.”
Anderson says your corn grower-customers could face extra costs to get their grain artificially dried down to acceptable moisture levels for storage, especially those from Des Moines, IA and points east.
Like everyone else, Anderson will be watching Hurricanes Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.
“But as far as the overall situation, it still looks promising,” he says.
