Our Not-So-Crystal Ball in Precision Agriculture
February 3, 2020 Twenty years ago last month, CropLife® magazine published a glorious ode to agriculture that we lovingly called the “Millennium Issue.” Among the myriad memories and milestones, we editors embarked on a retail technology prognostication exercise we called “Dealership 2010.” It was a full-color, hand-drawn piece of artwork that flowed beautifully across four magazine pages, sponsored by a company that no longer exists.
Truth be told, we thought about revisiting this 1999 production in the year 2010, but we were so far ahead of the curve that we kicked the can down the road an additional decade.
Despite taking the mulligan, our best guesses are still a mixed bag.
The cover of our “Dealership 2010” report in the 1999 issue of FARM CHEMICALS (CropLife) Magazine
There’s not enough room (or self-deprivation) available to give the complete scorecard, but out of the 25 predictions we made, about half hit the jackpot. In our defense, several partially came true, but there were some significant whiffs as well. Here are some of the highlights:
We predicted that “dynamic barcodes on each package track a product’s life from manufacturer to distribution to storage to application,” which I think is easily the biggest miss. I remember being certain this was around the corner, but outside of some isolated corners of the channel, we are still waiting.
One that’s at least a partial hit is “sensors measure soil and field conditions and provide for real-time analysis and application.” Sure, there are real-time sensors for irrigation and soil moisture, but the spirit of the prediction was much wider than what exists today.
Another partial hit was about the centralization of information: “A jumbo screen projects computer and internet-based information on markets, weather, processor growing and handling guidelines, general information from food companies, etc.” The good: We’re getting pretty close on the dashboard concept. The bad: At the time the concept of highly prescriptive farming directed by food companies seemed to be on the near horizon, so we clearly overreached, even 20 years later.
Looking back is fun, gratifying, and humbling at the same time. While I’m glad we have continued to think big, I’m sure glad we didn’t have to “bet the farm” on our predictions.
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