2013 Ag Retail Outlook: Consolidation, Drought Among Topics To Watch

Fresh from serving as the primary educational session coordinator at the Agricultural Retailers Association annual meeting in December, noted agribusiness consultant and Purdue University professor emeritus Dr. David Downey shared his top-of-mind, post-conference thoughts and observations.

Drought impact. We are set up well financially, as crop insurance has put a lot of dollars in farmers pockets and is primarily why we expect a good year this year. But that could have some significant implications for next year because we are starting into the winter season highly dependent on some winter snows and rains. Last year we had soil moisture going into the season that set things up well, but unless we get a lot of good rains and snows this winter we will not have the same situation going into 2013.

Market volatility. This is an issue that continues to gnaw at us. It has settled down a little recently and I don’t anticipate major swings in 2013 like we had three or four years ago. But there is still going to be volatility because we are facing an increasingly active global market where the prices react quickly to all sorts of political, natural and industry issues. However, it seems clear that wholesale price volatility will continue to be on a new higher plateau that a few years ago. New sources of natural gas from fracking operations and new U.S. production facilities for NH3 will introduce new dynamics, but not in the immediate future.

Profits from traditional patterns of higher in-season retail prices and gains from inventory appreciation have become far less predictable, forcing ag retailers to give a lot more attention to managing their risks. This includes passing more of the price volatility risk on to the farmer who has more risk management tools available to them through their grain marketing strategies.

While commodity prices are at near record levels and the outlook continues to appear very favorable for the near future, there is legitimate concern about a wide variety of market conditions that might cause commodity prices to fall, placing many farmers into a very difficult position. And then there are all sorts of other risks like weather, disruptive terrorists activity and government policy changes.

Consolidation of large farms. High commodities prices have left many farmers flush with cash that they want/need to invest. Further, the robust farming economy is attracting a lot of new money from investors. In spite of soaring land prices and ballooning multi-year farm lease agreements that frighten more conservative farmers, we continue to see rapid consolidation of farms. Many of these larger operations are reaching the point where they think and act like industrialized businesses. They are becoming big enough to provide many traditional agronomic services themselves. Some farmers perceive, at least initially, that they can get the job done more efficiently and have better control over quality and consistency.

Many large operations have different business models that require ag retailers to rethink how they create value – value that often is based on using agronomic information to squeeze out better yields at a lower cost-per-bushel and to gain efficiency through logistics, consistency of service and sophisticated business practices. As Carl Casale, CEO of CHS, put it in his keynote address at the Agricultural Retailers Association conference, ag retailers must carefully and rapidly adjust to this new reality if they are to remain ‘relevant.’

Understanding the customer better. We are seeing a trend in better management of customers, using various form of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) tools. I must admit my bias toward using CRM systems. They allow ag retailers to manage relationships with customers through multiple locations, working with large customers who farm multiple units as well as their traditional customers. And with the continuing consolidation of farms, this allows them to coordinate activities to utilize their resources much more effectively. We are just beginning to learn how to collect and use information to coordinate multiple activities with our customers and there is rapidly growing interest in doing this right. Over the next three to four years we are going to see significant improvements in the ag retailer’s ability to monitor what’s going on with customers.

Customer segmentation is becoming much more critical to success. Some farms will continue to want high levels of service, but there will be an increasing number that hire their own agronomist and look to the retailer to be a dependable supplier of commodities and that is much more transactional.

This means more ag retailers assigning the right salesperson to specific customers who have the technical skills to work appropriately with each customer. Some are better with relationship selling, while others are better at technical and/or business relationships.

Precision needs improvement. Precision agriculture continues to grow in importance. Nearly every ag retailer touts their own brand of precision ag as a differential advantage. But the reality is farmers perceive wide variation in the extent and quality of precision ag service that is available to them, or that they are willing to pay for. It is easy to own a piece of variable rate equipment and promote precision ag. But it is quite another thing to have in-depth information and a control system embedded into the total management systems for customers who depend on the ag retailers expertise and technical competency as an integral part of their monument process. Getting results is about getting the details right, management systems, integrating information into the fabric of the customer operation and becoming the customer’s trusted advisor. This requires a major commitment and is a long road to travel. Committed ag retailers are seeing good results and are learning rapidly how to make it work for both them and their customers.

Topics: ,

Leave a Reply

State of the Industry Stories

Liquid Fertilizer Storage tanks
State of the IndustryComplex Fertilizer Market Brings Mixed Feelings
January 5, 2016
Declining fertilizer prices and plentiful supplies should be good news for growers facing low crop prices. But they and their Read More
Asmus Farm Supply crop protection products in storage
State of the Industry2016 Crop Protection Outlook: The Guessing Game
January 4, 2016
One would naturally assume that retail sales of crop protection products in a contracted market would themselves be contracted, but Read More
Seed corn bags in storage
Special ReportsThe Outlook For Seed In 2016
January 3, 2016
Among all crop input categories going into 2016, the seed category has as many questions regarding which direction it will Read More
Wilbur-Ellis’ new fertilizer blending facility, located in Mott, ND, was designed by A.J. Sackett & Sons.
State of the IndustryBuying Intentions Survey: Retailers Taking A Prudent Approach In 2016
January 2, 2016
The CropLife® magazine Buying Intentions Survey made its debut last year to gauge current industry trends against the retailer’s plans Read More
Trending Articles
ASMARK 2016 Retailers Live! Tour - CPS
CropLife 100CPS Acquires Texas Retail Operation
August 23, 2016
Crop Production Services (CPS) has acquired the assets of Larry’s Chemical and Spray, Inc., for an undisclosed amount in an Read More
Key Cooperative Marcus Construction Steel Building
Retail FacilitiesMarcus Construction Builds High-Speed Agronomy Center For Key Cooperative
July 7, 2016
Key Cooperative in Grinnell, IA, wanted a state-of-the-art Agronomy Center to better serve its customers. Marcus Construction delivered exactly that. Read More
Heritage Cooperative
Retail FacilitiesKahler Automation Designs State-Of-The-Art Facility For Heritage Cooperative
July 4, 2016
Heritage Cooperative in Marysville, OH, needed an efficient liquid, dry and grain facility to serve the many needs of their Read More
The Andersons Waterloo
ManagementFirst Indiana Facility Certified Under 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program
June 27, 2016
The 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program has announced that The Andersons, Inc.’s Waterloo, IN, facility has been added to its Read More
Food IT
Industry NewsCalifornia Event Will Mix Ag And Tech Professionals To Explore IT Solutions
June 20, 2016
Silicon Valley is hot on agriculture, and an upcoming event in California will bring together the food and tech industries Read More
Monsanto Luling Plant
Eric SfiligojWhat’s Next For Monsanto?
May 31, 2016
For the folks at Monsanto’s headquarters in St. Louis, MO, it has been an eventful few weeks. Back on May Read More
Latest News
2016 ShowStopper | Case IH Patriot 4440 Sprayer
Equipment5 Show-stopping Products On Display At 2016 MAGIE
August 26, 2016
For 10 years now, visitors to the yearly Midwest AG Industries Exposition (MAGIE) show have been tasked with voting for Read More
Crop InputsDuPont Pioneer: Corn Belt P and K Levels Lagging
August 24, 2016
A new DuPont Pioneer study conducted across 12 Corn Belt states demonstrates that growers may be leaving profit potential in Read More
Monsanto sign
Crop InputsCould a Monsanto-Bayer Union Be 2 Weeks from Fruition?
August 24, 2016
Via STLToday.com (The St. Louis Post-Dispatch): Merger talks between Monsanto Co. and Bayer AG are advancing after a series of Read More
EquipmentCase IH Debuts Nutri-Tiller 955 Strip-Till Applicator
August 24, 2016
With strip-till continuing to expand across new acres, Case IH designed the new Nutri-Tiller 955 strip-till applicator to help producers Read More
EquipmentCase Launches Aim Command FLEX, 25th Anniversary Patrio…
August 24, 2016
Case IH announces new AIM Command FLEX advanced spray technology for greater application accuracy, as well as special 25th Anniversary Read More
ASMARK 2016 Retailers Live! Tour - CPS
CropLife 100CPS Acquires Texas Retail Operation
August 23, 2016
Crop Production Services (CPS) has acquired the assets of Larry’s Chemical and Spray, Inc., for an undisclosed amount in an Read More
PrecisionAg Video Conference
Precision AgVideo: PrecisionAg Vision Conference
August 22, 2016
A Strategic Conference Focused on the Future of Farm Digitization and Precision Agriculture Visit precisionagvision.com and register today! Read More
Young Corn Plants
Industry NewsOABA Welcomes Nicole Wallace As Communication & Adm…
August 22, 2016
The Ohio AgriBusiness Association has hired Nicole Wallace as its communication and administrative coordinator. Wallace will help provide comprehensive communication Read More
Syngenta Sign
Crop InputsChemChina, Syngenta Receive Clearance From CFIUS
August 22, 2016
China National Chemical Corp. (ChemChina) and Syngenta have announced that the companies have received clearance on their proposed transaction from the Read More
ManagementAg Industry Shows and Rumors
August 18, 2016
Editors Paul Schrimpf and Eric Sfiligoj talk about the upcoming trade show schedule, crop protection merger updates, and content for Read More
MAGIE 2015
EquipmentMAGIE Takes The Pulse Of The Ag Retail Industry
August 18, 2016
Every year, one of the major highlights of my career as an ag journalist is attending the Midwest AG Industries Read More
MAGIE 2015 Overview
EquipmentPride In Professionalism On Display At MAGIE
August 18, 2016
The Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association (IFCA) is proud to partner with CropLife IRON and continue the tradition of bringing Read More
SprayersJenner Ag To Debut 25th Anniversary Edition Case IH Pat…
August 18, 2016
Visitors at the 2016 Midwest Ag Industries Exhibition (MAGIE) in Bloomington, IL, will have a unique photo opportunity, as Jenner Read More
Crop InputsEU Glyphosate Controversy Heating Up Yet Again
August 17, 2016
The battle over glyphosate rages on in Europe, creating a lot of question marks over whether the herbicide will continue Read More
Industry NewsNew Partnership Provides Improved Representation At Ohi…
August 16, 2016
The Ohio AgriBusiness Association (OABA) has retained Belinda Jones of Capitol Consulting Group, Inc. (CCG) for government relations work in Read More
Tissue testing
FertilizerMosaic: 6 Tips For Better Crop Nutrition In Corn
August 16, 2016
Late in the crop season is a good time to assess visual nutrient deficiencies and ensure early- and mid-season deficiencies Read More
WebinarsWebinar Schedule
August 14, 2016
Register for one of our upcoming Webinars or access our archive of past Webinars to view recordings of presentations that may be of interest to you. Read More
Dow DuPont
Crop InputsDowDuPont Update: EU Takes Closer Look at Merger
August 12, 2016
Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. face months of haggling with European Union antitrust regulators who opened an in-depth probe Read More