CropLife e-News

WEIGHING IN: Corn’s Throne A Little Wobbly

Last April, the buzz was all about the Year of Corn. This year, well, maybe not so much. For months, most ag pundits have been predicting gains in soybeans and wheat at the expense of corn, so the only real suspense about USDA’s March 31 planting report was how much corn would drop.

How does the planting intentions of your growers’ fit with the national figures?

Let’s start with that decrease in corn acreage. Expect it to be 8 percent, which gives us a figure of 86 million planted acres, according to the Prospective Plantings report by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Keeping it in perspective, that’s still the second-largest acreage since 1949.

While corn prices are expected to remain strong, favorable prices for soybeans and wheat -- along with crop rotation considerations and high corn input costs -- are a strong motivating factor to take some acres out of corn.

The NASS report states that Iowa is expected to see the largest decrease in corn acreage, down 1 million acres from last year’s record, to 13.2 million acres. Both Indiana and Minnesota are expected to drop 800,000 acres from their record highs of last year.

Now let’s look at the soybean acreage. NASS finds that growers intend to plant 18 percent more acres, which translates into 74.8 million acres across the U.S. That’s 11.2 million more soybean acres than last year, and just 1 percent below the record high in 2006.

And where will these extra soybeans be planted? Just about every state. Iowa beans will be up 1.25 million acres, and Nebraska’s up 1.2 million to lead the charge. Indiana, Minnesota, and South Dakota expect increases of at least 800,000 acres. And Kansas, New York, and Pennsylvania growers expect to plant their largest soybean crops ever.

The report also notes: Wheat acreage is also expected to rise in 2008, up 6 percent to 63.8 million acres. Winter wheat planted area, at 46.8 million acres, is up 4 percent from last year. Expected acreage of durum wheat is up 22 percent, to 2.63 million acres.

NASS estimates 2008 cotton plantings at 9.39 million acres, 13 percent below last year. Upland cotton acreage is expected to total 9.19 million, the lowest level since 1983 and down 13 percent from last year. The largest acreage declines are expected in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas.

The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official estimate of U.S. growers’ planting intentions for 2008. NASS’s acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of approximately 86,000 farm operators across the U.S. Visit www.nass.usda.gov to read the report.

Amy L. Fahnestock
alfahnestock@meistermedia.com
Senior Associate Editor, CropLife Group