Markets Respond To USDA Report, Plea For More Soybean Acres

The latest report from the USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supplies could be at their lowest level relative to use since 1965 following the 2012-2013 cropping year.

The report, released Thursday (May 10), includes the USDA’s first estimates of crop size and use for the marketing year, but uses acreage data from an early-March survey of farmers’ planting intentions. Much has happened since the survey was conducted, however, and that could have changed farmers’ acreage intentions.

“The first change is the size of the South American crops, where expected corn production increased and expected soybean production decreased sharply,” said Chris Hurt, Purdue Extension agricultural economist. “Primarily as a result of changes in South America, anticipated world corn production has grown by 250 million bushels and anticipated world soybean production has dropped by about 575 million bushels since the USDA’s intentions survey was completed.”

Another big change in the markets has been China’s aggressive purchasing of corn and especially soybeans.

“Since the acreage survey was completed in early March, the USDA has increased anticipated corn exports for the current marketing year by eight percent, while the anticipated soybean exports have grown by a much larger 18%,” Hurt said.

An early start to the 2012 planting season also has led to projections of high corn yields.

The abundance of corn and lack of soybeans has caused a stir in futures markets that could have farmers reconsidering their planting decisions. New crop corn prices have been declining since March, while soybean prices have risen about 70 cents per bushel.

“Grain markets have been asking for more soybean acres, and that request turned into a plea with the latest USDA updates,” Hurt said. “Markets are now in their last-gasp effort to convince farmers to plant more acres of soybeans and fewer corn and spring wheat acres.”

The changes in market prices have led to a shift in anticipated crop returns. For example, Purdue crop budgets on March 1 projected returns of $48 per acre higher on corn than soybeans planted on average quality Indiana land. By April 10, the budgets were projecting a $25-per-acre higher return on soybeans than corn.

After the May 10 reports, the price advantage for soybeans had surged to $78 per acre.

Market prices show that there are too many corn and spring wheat acres and not enough soybean acres – something Hurt said some farmers still can take advantage of by shifting to soybeans.

“Many eastern Corn Belt farmers are nearly done with corn planting, but some might be able to shift small acreage,” he said. “The greatest acreage-shifting opportunity lies in the Western Corn Belt where corn planting isn’t as far along. This is especially true in Wisconsin, Iowa and the Dakotas.”

Farmers also have the opportunity to plant double-crop soybeans after they harvest winter wheat, especially since wheat harvest looks to be a couple of weeks ahead of schedule.

In 2011, there were about 4.5 million acres of double-crop soybeans in the U.S. Hurt said that number this year could increase to 6 million to 6.5 million acres.

“In some form, the market would like to see 2-3 million acres shifted out of corn and spring wheat into soybeans,” he said. “Knowing that farmers follow economic incentives and that the economic incentives for soybeans have sharply increased since the USDA last surveyed farmers, it is certainly possible to see that magnitude of acreage shifts when USDA releases their next acreage update on June 29.”

Leave a Reply

Seed/Biotech Stories

Peanut field
Crop InputsVerdesian Introduces New Inoculant For Peanuts
July 28, 2016
As planning begins for the next growing season, Verdesian Life Sciences adds Primo Power CL, a new liquid inoculant, to Read More
Soil Young Corn
Crop InputsSmithsonian: 5 Things to Know About New GMO Labeling Bill
July 27, 2016
On July 14, the House of Representatives passed a bill requiring large food companies to label products containing genetically modified Read More
Syngenta Sign
Crop InputsBloomberg: Syngenta-Chem China Deal on Track for Regulatory Approval
July 25, 2016
Syngenta AG, which has agreed to be taken over by China National Chemical Corp. for $43 billion, said talks with Read More
Crop InputsMonsanto: EU Approves Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Imports
July 22, 2016
Monsanto Co. announced today that the European Commission has granted import approval for Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans. This milestone Read More
Trending Articles
Southeast Farmers Coop - Finished Building
Retail FacilitiesNew Stueve Facilities Offer Ag Retailers Speed, Accuracy
July 9, 2016
Leading the industry in planning and constructing dry fertilizer storage and chemical warehouse solutions, Stueve Construction helped three ag retailers Read More
Heritage Cooperative
Retail FacilitiesKahler Automation Designs State-Of-The-Art Facility For Heritage Cooperative
July 4, 2016
Heritage Cooperative in Marysville, OH, needed an efficient liquid, dry and grain facility to serve the many needs of their Read More
The Andersons Waterloo
ManagementFirst Indiana Facility Certified Under 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program
June 27, 2016
The 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program has announced that The Andersons, Inc.’s Waterloo, IN, facility has been added to its Read More
Food IT
Industry NewsCalifornia Event Will Mix Ag And Tech Professionals To Explore IT Solutions
June 20, 2016
Silicon Valley is hot on agriculture, and an upcoming event in California will bring together the food and tech industries Read More
Monsanto Luling Plant
Eric SfiligojWhat’s Next For Monsanto?
May 31, 2016
For the folks at Monsanto’s headquarters in St. Louis, MO, it has been an eventful few weeks. Back on May Read More
Soybean Plant closeup
Industry NewsMonsanto Rejects Bayer Bid; Open To More Talks
May 25, 2016
Monsanto Co, the world’s largest seed company, turned down Bayer AG’s $62 billion acquisition bid as “incomplete and financially inadequate” Read More
Latest News
FertilizerGypsum Added To List Of Conservation Practices
July 28, 2016
Crop farmers in a growing number of states may be eligible for financial assistance from the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Read More
Management2016 CTIC Cover Crop Survey: 33% Report ROI From Cover …
July 28, 2016
Insight from 2,020 farmers from across the country reflected enthusiasm for cover crops and—for the fourth year in a row—found Read More
Palmer pigweed seedhead in cotton
HerbicidesStudy: Fall Weed Controls Can Make Significant Impact O…
July 28, 2016
An article published in the latest issue of the journal Weed Science shows that adopting harvest-time and post-harvest weed controls Read More
InsecticidesSyngenta: Beware Of Early Stinkbug Threat To Soybeans
July 28, 2016
With the record warm temperatures this past winter and confirmations from early entomologist reports, Syngenta encourages growers to monitor stinkbug Read More
Peanut field
Crop InputsVerdesian Introduces New Inoculant For Peanuts
July 28, 2016
As planning begins for the next growing season, Verdesian Life Sciences adds Primo Power CL, a new liquid inoculant, to Read More
Soil Young Corn
Crop InputsSmithsonian: 5 Things to Know About New GMO Labeling Bi…
July 27, 2016
On July 14, the House of Representatives passed a bill requiring large food companies to label products containing genetically modified Read More
Palmer pigweed in soybean stubble
HerbicidesSpecial Issue Of Weed Science Explores Human Aspects Of…
July 27, 2016
Weeds that evolve resistance to herbicides are a serious threat to global agricultural production. In this Special Issue of Weed Science, Read More
CHS Primeland
CropLife 100CHS Businesses In Washington, Idaho Combining For Great…
July 27, 2016
As full-service ag retailers, CHS Primeland and CHS Farmers Co-op collectively serve farmers and other customers in 15 counties in Read More
Storage Tanks at Nachurs
Crop InputsNACHURS Joins Field to Market
July 27, 2016
NACHURS announced today that it has joined Field to Market: The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture, a leading multi-stakeholder initiative working Read More
Illinois Researchers
FertilizerMeasure Of Age In Soil Nitrogen Could Help Precision Ag…
July 26, 2016
What’s good for crops is not always good for the environment. Nitrogen, a key nutrient for plants, can cause problems Read More
Kochia
Crop InputsNufarm Launches New Herbicide for Resistant Kochia
July 25, 2016
Nufarm introduces Scorch herbicide for U.S. farmers and ranchers combating a broad range of troublesome broadleaf weeds. A unique premix Read More
ManagementNew Rabobank Report Calls for Farmer ROI Focus
July 25, 2016
As U.S. row crop farmers brace themselves for a third year of negative margins, Rabobank believes farmers must lower the Read More
Syngenta Sign
Crop InputsBloomberg: Syngenta-Chem China Deal on Track for Regula…
July 25, 2016
Syngenta AG, which has agreed to be taken over by China National Chemical Corp. for $43 billion, said talks with Read More
ManagementGROWMARK Meeting Visit, Company Takeover Updates, and R…
July 22, 2016
Editors Paul Schrimpf and Eric Sfiligoj discuss their recent speaking engagement at GROWMARK’s eastern event, crop protection company merger rumors, Read More
Crop InputsMonsanto: EU Approves Roundup Ready 2 Xtend Imports
July 22, 2016
Monsanto Co. announced today that the European Commission has granted import approval for Roundup Ready 2 Xtend soybeans. This milestone Read More
Syngenta headquarters in Basel, Switzerland
Crop InputsSyngenta Announces Alfalfa Seed Split Off
July 22, 2016
On September 1, 2016, Syngenta will transfer sales and distribution of alfalfa seed to the NEXGROW branded business that is Read More
Dow DuPont
Crop InputsDuPont, Dow Shareholders Approve Merger
July 21, 2016
DuPont and The Dow Chemical Company announced that, at their respective special meetings of stockholders held today, stockholders of both Read More
ManagementLand O’Lakes Announces SUSTAIN Business Unit, Oth…
July 20, 2016
Land O’Lakes, Inc. today announced the formal organization of a new business unit, SUSTAIN, and its leadership. SUSTAIN will focus Read More