Ag Economist: Seed Prices Going Up, But So Will Revenues

Farmers will pay significantly more for the seed they’ll plant in 2013 but make up for it with higher returns on their investment, predicts a Purdue University agricultural economist.

Prices for corn seed are expected to rise 5%-7%, 7%-10% for soybean seed and more than 10% for wheat seed, said Alan Miller, a farm business management specialist.

That would mean a bag of corn seed would sell for between just under $200 to more than $300, depending on whether it is a conventional or biotech variety. Soybean seed would go for about $50 a bag, with wheat seed priced in the low $20s per bag.

“Seed supplies could be tight,” Miller said. “This is especially a concern with soybeans, because farmers might surprise the seed industry by deciding to switch to planting more beans next spring.”

He urged farmers to place their orders with seed dealers in the next few weeks.

The summer drought is contributing to the projected price increases but is not the only factor, Miller said.

“We would have expected prices to go up even if we hadn’t had a drought,” he said. “We’ve seen seed prices go up year after year for many years. There was a period of time in the early 2000s when producers were transitioning from non-genetically modified-type seed products to GMO types of seed products, which generally are more expensive.

“Then we had the rise in commodity prices. And, recently, we’ve had two extremely difficult seed corn producing years in a row in the Corn Belt.”

Seed companies increased their planted acreage this year, hoping to make up for poorer production in 2011, Miller said. The drought ruined those plans and had an adverse effect on the crop that survived.

“No one could have planned for a drought of that magnitude,” Miller said. “Seed quality could be a concern next year.”

Fortunately for farmers, they should earn enough from their 2013 crops to more than make up for the costlier seed.

“We’ve done some preliminary estimates and we’re looking at some very high levels of return, with the potential to cover all costs next year, even on our low-yield estimates,” Miller said. “It’s pretty unusual to cover all costs across all three yield levels – low, average and high – in our estimates.”

Miller projects that a farmer growing rotation corn on average-yield soil would generate $560 in crop returns above variable costs per acre in 2013. Rotation soybeans would bring in an estimated $466 an acre on average-yield soil, with wheat generating $372 per acre on that same type soil. If realized, those margins would represent an increase in revenue from this year of 24% for rotation corn, 17% for rotation soybeans and 51% for wheat.

“The economics at current prices for next fall are very good, even with the higher cost of seed and some of the other inputs,” Miller said. “I’m expecting a good opportunity for profits, if we can avoid another drought.”

Leave a Reply

Seed/Biotech Stories

Monsanto sign
Seed/BiotechMonsanto, NRGene Form Agreement For Big Data Genomic Analysis Technology
January 12, 2017
Monsanto Co. and NRGene have announced that the companies have reached a non-exclusive, multi-year global licensing agreement on NRGene’s genome-analysis Read More
Acceleron B-300 seed coating
Crop InputsThe BioAg Alliance Advances New Microbial Solutions For Agriculture
January 5, 2017
The BioAg Alliance, Monsanto’s and Novozymes’ collaboration to improve crop harvests through products containing naturally-occurring microbes, has announced results from Read More
Seedling Closeup
Seed/BiotechExceed The Seed Symposium Lauded For Engaging Speakers, New Seed Technology Insight
December 21, 2016
The 2016 Exceed the Seed Symposium offered attendees exclusive knowledge of developing trends in seed treatment and novel technologies to Read More
Soybeans closeup
Seed/BiotechUnderstanding Inoculation Techniques For Legumes
December 20, 2016
Inoculum is not magic dust — it contains bacteria that must be kept alive. According to Penn State Extension, all packages Read More
Trending Articles
AgriSync
Matt Hopkins17 Agriculture Apps That Will Help You Farm Smarter In 2017
December 9, 2016
Ag professionals are working smarter, not harder, than ever before. Smart farming technologies have enabled them to reduce costs, maximize Read More
R4023 Sprayer, John Deere
CropLife 100Ag Retail Equipment Report: The Green Party Continues
December 7, 2016
In the annual race for sales in the ag retail equipment marketplace, the color schemes for participants are a little Read More
Mike Stern
Precision AgClimate Corp. CEO Talks Retailer Support For Digital Ag
December 1, 2016
CropLife Magazine’s sister publication, AgriBusiness Global, recently sat down with Mike Stern, CEO of The Climate Corp., following the Monsanto subsidiary’s Read More
Precision AgTrimble Debuts End-to-End FMIS Platform
November 28, 2016
October’s inaugural PrecisionAg Vision Conference left this author with many thoughts and things to ponder in the coming months. Probably Read More
CHS Primeland
CropLife 100The 2016 CropLife 100 Report: Reviewing The Many Bulls And Bears Impacting This Year’s Marketplace
November 28, 2016
For virtually all of 2016, the nation was wholly focused on the big Presidential election. Some folks aligned themselves with Read More
Monsanto sign
Crop InputsMissouri Governor Meets With Bayer CEO To Discuss Monsanto Merger
November 21, 2016
Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon visited Bayer AG global headquarters in Leverkusen, Germany, on November 18 to discuss the proposed Bayer-Monsanto Read More
Latest News
Eric SfiligojNo Alternative Facts: Dicamba Cropping System Applicato…
January 23, 2017
During President Donald Trump’s inauguration, much fuss was made over the use of the term “alternative facts” vs. some of Read More
Young Corn Plants
ManagementTimac Agro USA Acquires Michigan Ag Retailer
January 20, 2017
Timac Agro USA, an agriculture supply company specializing in high-efficiency plant and animal nutrition products, has acquired St. Louis,MI-based A&E Ag, Read More
Soybean field
Crop InputsNufarm Teams Up With John Deere Financial
January 19, 2017
Nufarm and John Deere Financial have teamed up to help farmers grow a better tomorrow. This program helps make purchases Read More
Sonny Perdue
LegislationTrump Formally Picks Perdue As Agriculture Secretary
January 19, 2017
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump officially announced Sonny Perdue as his choice for secretary of agriculture on Thursday, selecting a former Read More
ManagementPresident Trump, Wisconsin Review, and a Dow-DuPont Upd…
January 18, 2017
Editors Paul Schrimpf and Eric Sfiligoj reflect on a new administration, a recent winter show, and crop protection company mergers. Read More
Industry NewsBayer, MS Technologies Get China Approval For Balance G…
January 18, 2017
MS Technologies and Bayer have received import approval from China for Balance GT soybeans. The new Balance GT Soybean Performance Read More
Werner Baumann, Bayer AG, and Hugh Grant, Monsanto
Industry NewsReport: Monsanto, Bayer CEOs Among Latest to Make Trump…
January 18, 2017
The chief executive officers of German chemical giant Bayer AG and U.S. seed behemoth Monsanto, Werner Baumann and Hugh Grant, Read More
Giant Ragweed
HerbicidesStudy: Focusing On Weed Seedbank Can Help Manage Herbic…
January 18, 2017
Researchers writing in the latest issue of the journal Weed Science provide important insights on the control of herbicide-resistant giant Read More
Management3 Financial Trends To Watch In Agriculture
January 17, 2017
I recently had the opportunity to attend a meeting of credit managers for Midwest ag supply and input companies, in part Read More
Andersons Retail Store
CropLife 100The Andersons To Close All Retail Stores; Shutdown Does…
January 16, 2017
In a stunning announcement to the Toledo area, The Andersons Inc. said on Sunday that it would close its two Read More
Trimble TMX-2050 In-Cab Display
Eric SfiligojPrecision To Lead Agriculture In 2017?
January 16, 2017
Another new year is upon us! And I’m certain I speak for many in the agricultural world when I say Read More
Corn
Eric SfiligojThe Mood From Madison? In A Holding Pattern
January 16, 2017
Last week, I had the chance to attend the annual Wisconsin AgriBusiness Classic show in Madison, WI. It’s been a Read More
Syngenta Sign
Crop InputsAccenture Helps Syngenta Transform Its Global Logistics
January 13, 2017
Syngenta, a leading agriculture company, has collaborated with Accenture to design and implement a new digital logistics operating model across Read More
Fall Creek Seth Harden The Nature Conservancy
StewardshipLocal Farmers’ Watershed Initiative: Continuous Improve…
January 13, 2017
The goal in the Big Pine Watershed Project is to more intentionally do what local farmers and responsible ag retailers Read More
HerbicidesEPA Expands Enlist Duo Herbicide Registration To 34 Sta…
January 13, 2017
The U.S. EPA has expanded the geography for application of Enlist Duo herbicide from 15 to 34 states. This means Read More
Olson Ag Enterprise
CropLife 100Wilbur-Ellis Acquires Nebraska Seed Retailer
January 13, 2017
Wilbur-Ellis’ Agribusiness, a recognized leader in precision agriculture technology and the distribution and marketing of plant protection, seed and nutritional Read More
ManagementDeere-Precision Planting Update and the Ag Secretary Wa…
January 12, 2017
Editors Paul Schrimpf and Eric Sfiligoj provide the latest on the court date for John Deere/Precision Planting and the quest Read More
Monsanto sign
Seed/BiotechMonsanto, NRGene Form Agreement For Big Data Genomic An…
January 12, 2017
Monsanto Co. and NRGene have announced that the companies have reached a non-exclusive, multi-year global licensing agreement on NRGene’s genome-analysis Read More