Author Archives: Sano Shimoda

About Sano Shimoda

Shimoda is founder and president of BioScience Securities, Venice, CA.

Too Much Of A Good Thing Can Spoil Ag’s Party

Over the last five issues of CropLife® magazine, starting in September 2011, we discussed our views on various dimensions to a question that we have been concerned about since late 2010: “Is Agriculture Facing a Bubble?” Recently, this concern generated serious discussion beyond the ag media, not only in the business/financial press, but also at

Market Myopia — The Power Of The Dark Side

There is a broad body of theory that underpins our understanding of market behavior, especially financial markets — namely, that markets are rational. However, we believe there are times when markets, and, especially market players, become the victim of myopia, reflecting over-optimism, herd mentality and short-term thinking. Many times, the lack of focus and inability

Agriculture’s Value Equation: Farmland Values

Agriculture is facing Ag Bubble 2.0, reflecting “irrational exuberance,” not a “new normal.” In our opinion, this will result in a traumatic downward cycle, as discussed in our previous articles in this series. While farmers have experienced crop price and profit cycles over the last 25 years from the mid-1980s, farmland values, as exemplified by

State Of Agriculture: Irrational Exuberance Or The New Normal?

Today, as exemplified by the Midwest ag marketplace, corn prices are approaching $7.50/bushel, land rents are pushing $350-400+per acre levels and prime farmland has reached $10-13,000/acre. In the first article of this series in CropLife® (Is Agriculture Facing A Bubble?), we raised the issue of whether these ag marketplace indicators reflect “irrational exuberance” or a

Is Agriculture Facing A Bubble?

Today, the world of agriculture, especially Midwest agriculture, which is dominated by the three major row crops (corn, soybeans and wheat) is once again experiencing record or near record crop prices, with corn reaching close to $8 per bushel in June. Recent sales of high productivity farmland in Iowa and Illinois have reached $11,000 to

Ethanol’s Future: A Perspective

Ethanol has been on a roller coaster over the last four years. The boom during 2006 and early 2007 was short-lived. Industry profitability deteriorated through 2007 and collapsed in 2008′s second half (though ethanol profitability has made a moderate recovery in 2009). The major questions facing market supporters now are what is the outlook for

Beyond The Correction

Within three years, the ethanol industry has gone from boom to bust. Many ethanol plants are generating red ink, and a number of ethanol companies have shut down operations or filed for bankruptcy. A recent, stark example was Valero Energy‘s recent announcement that it planned to buy five of VeraSun Energy‘s operating ethanol plants for